The Effect Of Climate Changes On Agriculture In The Eastern Region Of Qinghai Province

In this paper, according to nearly47meteorological observation data form12weatherstations(average temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours) in eastern region of Qinghaiand statistics of production and planting structure information of two main crops-wheat andpotatoes, it analyzed that (1) climate change and changes in food production and cropstructure by mathematical statistical method;(2)the analysis on the correlation between them;(3)proposed regional agricultural development strategy to address climate change.The results showed that (1)the mean temperature in the eastern region of Qinghai was asignificant upward trend and there was a strong cycle of20~30a with a high-low-high threecycles of process;(2)the mean precipitation was upward trend, and there was a strong cycle of20~30a with more-less-more three cycles of process. In space mean precipitation had highnorth-low south, in the southeast-northwest direction increments trends and there weresignificant regional differences;(3) mean sunshine hours were a significant downward trend.There was a strong cycle of about20~30a with more-less-more three cycles of process. Meansunshine hours had a trend from high middle–low north and south to high west-low east andthe regional differences were significant.The mean ET0in eastern region of Qinghai was a significantly sudden downward trendin the early1970s. ET0in reduced region had sudden decline around1981; ET0in increasedregion has sudden decline around1997. The mean ET0in the entire eastern region hadmore-less-more three cycles of process in time scales of about20~30a. Periodic variation ofET0in reduced region and increased region was similar to the entire eastern region. Thespatial distribution of the mean ET0was similar before mutations and after it. The spatialdistribution characteristics of5~8months ET0was similar to these of the annual mean ET0. Inshort, sunshine hours and wind speed were the main meteorological factors affecting changesof ET0.The main meteorological factors affecting meteorological yields of wheat and potato areprecipitation and reference crop evapotranspiration for nearly47years in the eastern region ofQinghai Province. Precipitation is the greatest impact in non-irrigation area in wheat growingperiod. The average temperature and the reference crop evapotranspiration have a significant impact on meteorological yields of wheat. The main meteorological factors affecting themeteorological yields of wheat in irrigation area is similar to non-irrigation area's, but theimpact of meteorological factors on the meteorological yields becomes weakening inirrigation area. The main meteorological factors affecting the meteorological yields of potatoare precipitation and reference crop evapotranspiration. The main meteorological factorsaffecting the meteorological yields of potato in irrigation area is similar to non-irrigationarea's, but the impact of meteorological factors on the meteorological yields becomesweakening in irrigation area.The main meteorological factors affecting the planting structure are reference cropevapotranspiration and precipitation in the eastern region of Qinghai Province. The mainmeteorological factors affecting wheat-growing proportion are rainfall and reference cropevapotranspiration in non-irrigation. Compared with the non-irrigation area, in irrigation areathe main meteorological factors affecting planting proportion are the same and the degree ofinfluence is similarly. The main meteorological factors affecting potato growing proportionare rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration between irrigation area and non-irrigationarea. The degree of influence of meteorological factors is similarly in two Irrigationcondition.To enhance the ability of agriculture to combat climate change in the eastern region ofQinghai Province, the region should strengthen disaster prevention and mitigation in order toensure the stable food production. The water conservancy and infrastructure constructionshould be strengthened in order to promote the long-term development of agriculture.Increasing agricultural investment research, selection and cultivate the crop varieties underthe new climatic conditions increase food production. Protecting ecological environmentimproves agriculture adaptability to climate change.