Climate Change Characteristics In Aksu Region And Its Effect On Cotton-Production Region

In this paper, the characters of climate change in Aksu region is based on the observed data of monthly air temperature, monthly precipitation, sunshine hours data, none frost, annual sand dust and ground temperature from 1961 to 2005 about 10 observatory stations and cotton yield from 1986 to 2005. We use Spss,Excel,Matlab and the data to do analysis of trend,correlation,break and grey prediction.To analyse and compare the climate variations nearly 45 years about Aksu region. We also use orthogonal polynomial and correlation to do researches on temperature effecting on meteorological output of cotton nearly 20 years in Aksu region. The result shows that:1. It gradually appears warm in Aksu region nearly 45 years,the trend ratio is 0.19℃/10a that is consistent with the whole Xinjiang. This kind of tendency appears mainly in spring and winter. The feature of annual temperature in spatial is that south is higher than north and west is higher than east. The warming rate is biggest in Shaya which in the south of Aksu. The annual mean temperature abruptly change in 1992,and then the temperature is gradually raising.2. The precipitation in the Aksu region presents increasing direction in recent 45 years, the trend ratio is 10.39mm/10a .This kind of tendency appears mainly in spring and summer, however the trend of precipitation in autumn and winter is not obvious.The wetting rate of Baicheng is biggest and lowest in Alaer in the south of Aksu. The precipitation in the region from low to high get to the level of jump change in 1986 by the jump test to change of Mann-kendall means.3. The annual sunshine hours in the region is decreasing at the trend rate of -3.1h/10a. The trend of winter is consistent with the annual, but in spring and summer sunshine hours is increasing direction.The sunshine hours is correlated with acreage of oasis and the number of dust day. The annual sunshine hours and dust data is nagative correlation. The annual sunshine hours abruptly change in 1971 by the jump test to change of Mann-kendall means,and then the annual sunshine hours is droping off, however The sunshine hours in autumn from low to high get to the level of jump change in 1963.4. Use Grey system theory and through the establishment of GM(1, 1) predicting model, and make a predicting of annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,annual sunshine hours prior to the year from 2006 to 2010. The annual mean temperature in Aksu region all present calefactive trend except Kuche,Baicheng,Keping.With the exception of Xinhe,Shaya,Alaer, annual precipitation is gradually increasing in other counties.The trend of annual sunshine hours in Aksu,Wushi and Alaer is decreasing, however other counties all present gradually increasing trend. 5. The result of correlation shows that temperature is positive affect the cotton yield,however,sand dust and gale is negative affect. Researches on temperature effecting on meteorological output of cotton by orthogonal polynomial and correlation nearly 20 years in Aksu region. The time of effection is different in different counties, but mostly centralized in the first ten days of june and september. The conclusion is that the key phases of xun mean temperature affecting cotton yield in Aksu region are the period from bud and development to open boll period of cotton.