Study On Relations Between The Urbanization And The Crime Rate

Since the reform and opening up,China's rapid growth in urbanization level is obvious,as the policy of "promote urbanization level actively and steadily" has been put on the agenda,urbanization is expected to become the great engine of expanding domestic demand.However,in the urbanization process,the social structures,social systems and social relationships will change to the more complex,accidental and split state,all kinds of social contradictions will become more prominent.When the development of city is difficult to coordinate the social conflicts,which will lead to a variety of "urban diseases" and thus indirectly lead to the production of crime.In turn,in the view of the change of criminal offense since the reform and opening up,the crime rate also showed rapid upward trend in the fluctuations.This phenomena of simultaneous growth between the two,in the end by chance or necessary,which is significant for the study of induced factors in crime and make sense to suppress crime.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the effect of changes of urbanization on the crime rate.There are two different points of view about the research of criminal offense and urbanization in the domestic literatures.One is China's crime rate also rise with the continuous progress of urbanization,the other is the increase of urbanization level in China will reduce the crime rate. So we think the relationship between urbanization and the crime rate is non-linear.That is to say,in the early stage of urbanization,the crime rate increased with the rise of urbanization level; when urbanization reaches or exceeds a certain level, the crime rate will increase slowly or decrease as the rise of urbanization.Firstly,this paper reviews the related literatures and theories briefly.Then,we collect the related data from the year of 1978 to 2009,and we take the methods of combining qualitative method and quantitative method,and we mainly aim to analyze the effect of changes of urbanization on the crime rate.The paper adopts modern econometric methods,and introducts the system variables,establishes cointegration models in considering structural breaks,studies the long-term equilibrium relations between the level of urbanization and the crime rate.Then the paper uses the error correction models to analyze the short-term effects between the two.Finally,we make comments and give some suggestions on the basis of above analysis.