Economic System Modeling And Structural Analysis

In terms of the system analysis method of systems science, this dissertation studies economic systems deeply. We establishes models of economic systems and analyzes their structures. Economic system analysis analyzes and studies economic system by means of the methods of systematic theory and systems engineering. It combines the qualitative and quantitative principles via mathematical tools and economic theories.Economic phenomena are not only complex but also variational, which can not be put to the test in laboratory as natural sciences. Therefore, economists often leave out the secondary factors and study the relationship among crucial factors in detail to build economic system models. This dissertation mainly studies interpretative structural modeling, simultaneous equation modeling and cointegration modeling, which is the foundation of structural analysis.Interpretative structural modeling decomposes a complex system into a number of sub-systems. Furthermore, a multi-layer structure model, depending on people's practice experience, knowledge and the help of computer, is established. Simultaneous equation modeling makes use of relevant statistical data to distinguish chosen variables and determine a basal model. Then, parameters of this model are estimated. In the end, diagnosing model checks up the availability of this model. Cointegration modeling begins to analyze non-stationary time series and studies the long-term equilibrium relationship between non-stationary economy variables. Lastly, an error correction model, combining the short-term fluctuation with the long-term equilibrium, is established. It is interesting to notice that this model reflects the negative feedback adjustment mechanism of the long-term equilibrium on the short-term fluctuation.Based on a variety of modeling methods, demonstrational analysis of some economic phenomena are presented by using relevant statistical data at hand. In terms of cointegration theory, demonstrational analyses of Chinese Cobb-Douglas production function and output structure in four departments of Shandong are presented. This is also our main work of this dissertation.Finally, we summarize this dissertation, and put forward problems to be resolved in future.