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Study On System Methodology Of Sports Forecast And Manufacturing Of Simulation System On Prediction Of Sports Training

Posted on:2005-08-23Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:S D LuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2167360122996507Subject:Humanities and sociology
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Forecast means the inference, supposition or judgement on the future state of things by knowing their current state and development tendency well. Forecast is the presupposition of plans and decisions. The whole sports system is in a chaos with the changeable environment (inside and outside) and the complicate factors. Therefore, it's necessary to forecast sports system before making a decision. Only by forecasting, can we make a reliable control of the sports system in advance since we have determined the uncertain factors and their development tendency. Forecast is a branch of practical applied science, which can be perceived (acquired) despite of its complex objects. It can be made as long as you know the changing rules of the sports' development. Obviously, the forecast should be based on the scientific theories and makes use of reasonable supposition, logic reason and scientific analysis method.After 20 years' development, Chinese sports forecast theories have fashioned a methodological system for sports forecast and provide important support for the scientification of sports' decision. With the fast development of social economy and the scientific technology, and with the advancement of sports system's complexity, people have a high demand of the sports forecast. The earlier simple and single forecast theories ran into an impassable obstacle. How to broaden the thoughts and solve the problem of forecast with a complex system has become a revolutionary challenge.As for present status, the most effective way to solve and deal with the complicated problems is to use a from-quality-to-quantiry synthetic method. The nature of the synthetic method is to combine the expert system, data and information system with computers, so that the system will be composed of thecombination of intelligent humans with machines and the combination of humans with internet. It is applied successfully out of the system's synthetic, integrated and intelligent advantages. In this system, human's ideology and its achievement, human's experience, knowledge, intelligence and all kinds of information are integrated, which make the qualitative knowledge rise to the quantitative level. According to Qian Qisen's classified criteria of system, sport system should belong to a complex system. Therefore, the application of the comprehensive and integrated systematic methodology to the sports forecast field is an ideal means to overcome the current problems and an ideal tool to surpass the current status of sports forecast theories.Based on a great number of materials' collection, synthetically employing investigation and consult method, comparative study method, systemic analysis method, mathematics building model method, software engineering method and the others, from expounding sports forecast method, this article comparatively analyzes the present status of sports forecast study, discuses the development orientation of sports system forecast, thus comes up with the systemic methodology of sports forecast study and develops SSPST. All in all, this subject reaches the conclusions as follows:(1) Form the sorting and analysis of sports forecast methods, we can easily know that the forecast in the sports field still regards qualitative method as a main method, while quantitative forecast study is mainly concentrated on the forecast of sports training results. It indicates that the forecast study in the sports field is severely out of balance not only on the whole but also in part.(2) Though the forecast methods of sports system have already become a set of method system, but for its study object, it is only used to solve the problems about parts and in the low level in sports field, so it does not reach the level that "modern science and technology appears a not only highly divided but also highly synthesized tendency".(3) Methodology restricts the development of sports system forecast. Synthetic methodology reflects a system combining people with computer, whichtallies with the modern sports tendency towards synthesis, sy...
Keywords/Search Tags:sports forecast, qualitative and quantitative analysis, systematic methodology, synthetic method, sports training, forecast intimation system
PDF Full Text Request
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