Theoretical And Empirical Analysis On The Employment In China Against The Influence Of Exchange Rate Fluctuation

Exchange rate is a national foreign economic ties and maintain external balance of price leverage, it is through the relative prices of imports and exports of a country to restrict the realization of a country's comparative advantage, thereby affecting a country or region of foreign trade development, and the employment of one country being directly or indirectly affected.Since reform and opening, the relations between the RMB exchange rate and China's foreign trade has being increasingly strengthened.30 years has made significant achievements of China's foreign trade, import and export trade volume ranked second (2009), long-term dependence on foreign trade value of up to 60% or more, and in part on the labor-intensive products and dependence on foreign trade significantly higher than that of resource-intensive type, capital-and technology-intensive products, dependence on foreign trade, trade sector to concentrate a large amount of labor in China. Therefore studies of exchange rate fluctuations on trade, and the degree of impact, and propose practical suggestions to make the exchange rate is conducive to increased employment, the unemployment rate in the range of people can afford, is of great significance.In this paper, the theoretical basis of Marxism and the West of employment, by restricting the exchange rate to achieve a country's comparative advantage based on logical deduction, with IS-LM-BP model, build and derive the exchange rate of linear growth and employment growth model, from theory describes a country's exchange rate fluctuations will affect employment, and analyzes the impact of the way; On this basis, the use of measurement software Eviews6.0 build OLS, VAR and panel model, demonstrated in detail on China's enterprises of exchange rate fluctuations employment, involving urban and rural nature of the business and three regions of different three regions of different industries, the main conclusions are:first, wages, state-owned enterprises are more sensitive to the urban collective units reflects the weak; employment point of view, the state-owned enterprises reaction is less sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations, while the employment impact of urban collective units very hard, mainly negative impact; Second, the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate fluctuations on the domestic employment impact of the average wage level is greater than the RMB against the yen exchange rate fluctuations, and fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate against the Japanese yen is conducive to raising the level of national average wage, the impact effect is positive; from the employment point of view, the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate fluctuations on the domestic state-owned enterprises and urban employment, urban collective enterprises greater than the impact of the RMB against the Japanese yen exchange rate fluctuations and, ultimately, negative impact, not conducive to employment; three, from the RMB real exchange rate of urban employment in other types of business situation, the real appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against other types of enterprises have a negative impact of employment, but the employment of self benefit, the impact is short term; four, the RMB real exchange rate on the employment situation of rural enterprises, the real appreciation of the RMB exchange rate employed in township enterprises have a positive impact on private sector employment has decreased, the impact is short term; five, the RMB real exchange rate fluctuations on three major areas of three regions have different impact on different sectors within the three regions affected are also different.This article is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is an introduction on the background and significance of thesis topics, related definition, domestic and foreign literature, the structure of ideas of this general overview of the contents. The second chapter describes the theory of this paper, in Exchange Rate Theory and employment based on the theory to derive the principles of model analysis, building a country's exchange rate of linear growth and employment growth model, and exchange rate fluctuations will be obtained on the employment impact of a country, thereby paving the way for the theory of this paper.The third chapter is the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the theory of employment, exchange rate of a country by restricting the logical interpretation of comparative advantages, with the IS-LM-BP model, the exchange rate theory describes the impact of growth and employment growth mechanism and macro, meso and micro pathway in three areas.Part IV of exchange rate fluctuations on empirical analysis of employment, that is the focus of this chapter, respectively, analysis of China's foreign trade dependence, the urban state-owned, urban collective, and other types of, rural township and village enterprises, private enterprises and individuals, and the three regions the three regions of different industries, the employment impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and draw conclusions. Part V of policy proposals, mainly from the exchange rate and employment were both put forward their views and opinions.