Study On Trend Of Urban Construction Land Expansion Based On CA_MARKOV

Expansion of urban construction land is one aspect of land use study. Currently, under the premise of limited land resources, high-speed urbanization has led to rapid urban construction land expansion, cultivated land area reduction and environmental pollution. If the phenomenon were beyond control and management, it would refrain from development of both society and economy, exerting negative and far-reaching influence on environment. An increasing number of scholars put emphasis on coordination of rapid and healthy urbanization, realization of economic development, security of ecological environment, urban expansion, avoidance of land resource waste, scientific and rational optimization and allocation of land resources. Study on urban construction land prediction will provide scientific reference and powerful support to urban and land planning in the future.Cellular automata and Markov chain have overwhelming advantage in prediction of urban construction land expansion with disadvantage respectively. CA-Markov model has advantage in attributes of time and space, with temporal and spatial simulation both quantitatively and geographically. Based on land use change suitability, influence of its nature, society and economy, and definition of constricted factors, the CA-MARKOV model is upgraded into constricted cellular automata (CCA-MARKOV) model, covering the shortage of CA model without some factors considered. Trend of urban construction land expansion in Sujiatun District of Shenyang is studied with combination of CCA-MARKOV model and GIS short for Geographic Information System. Based on MCE short for multi-criterion evaluation, current situation of urban construction land and its influencing factors are analyzed, laying foundation for collection of images for suitability transformed from urban construction land in the following step. Transformed area matrix is obtained with MARKOV module in IDRISI, suitability image obtained with MCE module. Distribution of urban construction land in the year 2015 is simulated in studied region. Results indicate studied region will expand to the south entirely, with expansion evident in the southeast, closer to the SHENYANG TAOXIAN airport. The northern part is closely related with Shenyang, but prediction indicates change of construction land will be structure adjustment as a result of early development. The southwest is close to Shenyang, but ecological protection makes the expansion not obvious. Generally speaking, the edge of urban construction land expands slowly. Study demonstrates that the application of CCA-MARKOV is feasible and accurate. After coordination according to the factual situation, the model can be applied to simulation for urban construction land expansion in the similar regions.The significance of the study lies in combination of traditional planning in city along with land and GIS modeling, the use of CCA-MARKOV in the land classification and survey, regional planning and urban planning in order to predict change trend of urban construction land in county and district and proposal of a complete solution to prediction for change of construction land in studied region.