Study On The Relationship Between Land Price And Commodity Price

In recent years, land prices and housing prices in Changsha City has soared. For example, compared with 2003, the average saleing price of real estate in Changsha has reached 4285 yuan/m2 in 2008,with a rate of 69.57%; At the same time, since 2003, with the implement of land transfer system " Bidding, Auction, Listing", the residential land price has increased from 1245 yuan/m2 in 2003 to 1,963 yuan/m2 in 2009, with a rate of 57.67%. The rapid rise in house prices and land prices will hamper social and economic development in Changsha, the improvement of people's living standard, which also will make low-income groups no housing to live.Is higher housing price pushing higher land price or higher land price pushing higher housing price, this is always the intersection of academic exchange. Too high or too low housing and land price will have various adverse effects on the socio-economic development, therefore, it is necessary to explore the relationship between housing price and land price, and to find the law of development, to make many related real estate market regulation policy as a scientific basis for the government, in order to promote the sustained, healthy and coordinated development of real estate market in Changsha.In this paper, the method of Granger causality test and empirical analysis was used. By using the first quarter price index datas in 2003 to the fourth quarter in 2009 of housing transactions and land transaction price index for the data source, this paper explored the relationship between the house price and land price. The conclusion showed that in short term (one year),it existed mutual influence between house price and land price, but when lagging 1,house price had a significant effect on land price, when lagging 2,3 and 4, house price and land price effected each other; while in the long term, it did not have a cointegration relationship between the house price and land price, there was no long-term equilibrium relationship between them, which mainly for house price and land price ware not with same synchronization and amplitude fluctuations. Finally, this paper proposed related countermeasures to control the real estate market from six aspects, they ware to strengthen the management of the property market, to improve housing security system, to improve the housing structure, taxation, market regulation and financial market.