Temporal Scale Analysis Of The Relationship Between Housing Price And Land Price In Xiamen

With residents’ increasing disposable income and the steady development of macroeconomic in China, commercial housing market and land market are developing prosperously, leading to the rising land price and housing price. This study makes a quantitative analysis and a qualitative evaluation on the relationship between commercial housing land-rent value and housing price, taking Xiamen City as the research object.Firstly, the operation of real estate market in Xiamen city’s was analysed at a macro level, so as to obtain the comprehensive background for the research of commercial house price and land price. Secondly, the land price and the commercial house price from the first quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 2010 in Xiamen city was exmined using the method of granger causality test.The short-term and long-term interactive relationship between land price and commercial house price was also studied. Finally, according to the result of Granger causality test, the variation characteristics of Xiamen city commercial house price and land price were analysed, the change between the land-rent value and the commercial house price was explained, and a reference for analysis of the role of land price in property prices was provide.Results showed that:(1)Xiamen has a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between housing price and land price, and the housing price has great effect on the land price. The elastic coefficient is 0.614. That is, once the land price increases by 1,the housing price would increases by 0.614.(2) The increasing of the previous housing price would increases the current housing price, which is the ratchet effect. Consumption is not reversible in the short term, which might related to the mentality "buying up not buying down" of the citizens.3) Whether long-term or short-term, Xiamen city land price have significant impact on prices. There are 2 factors:1. The land price is the cost element of the housing price; 2. The supply of primary land market pattern increases the lang price, then influences the housing price via cost element.From the above results, this study provides the following suggestion:the government should choose timely macro-control policies and the land supply policy, give play to the dynamic role of land price on house prices, set up the real estate price evaluation system and analyse house prices objectiveley and reasonably.