Research On Measurement Of The Real Estate Market Bubble

Current theorists of the situation in China real estate market bubble hold three perspectives:One is that there is no bubble in the real estate market in China; the other is that in China's real estate market there is a certain degree of foam; there is a view of room real estate market bubble too much, almost collapse. Then the article started with the following few questions to expand this research:first, whether the existence of the real estate bubble does not exist; the second is the real estate bubble and how to define and how to measure, it will be the focus of this article. From the reality, once the real estate bubble burst in an instant, how serious the damage will a country's economic and financial, to bring all aspects of social life:the function of the market allocation of resources reduced, resulting in a lot of waste; many people despise labor gradually, opportunistic, social and psychological effects of the bubble is extremely poor; housing prices soaring, more and more working people get to buy a house sight; bubble burst, the banking system remain a large number of bad debts associated with real estate, triggering a financial crisis.This paper is structured:the second chapter summarizes a variety of causes that lead to the real estate bubble and can be divided into two types:rational expectations and non-rational expectations, and explained.Chapter III is also the focus of this article, focusing on the detection of a variety of useful real estate bubble theory model, and gives each theory in detail, especially the indicators indicating method which is more practical for China, and the price theory which is more accurate when there are many data. The following are all given a lot of instructions. Finally, the real estate bubble in Shenzhen is tested with co-integration model, and constructed bubble coefficient chapter IV. Then we conclude that the bubble in Shenzhen in recent years is in the trend of increasing degree.Innovation of this paper is:In this paper based on co-integration, co-integration model used to measure the bubble can be said to a better integration of econometric theory and economic life. Co-integration model can well describe the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables, and by adding error correction information contained in long-term, so that time series will not always deviate from the long-run equilibrium, and with that, it will better able to simulate the dynamic relationship between variables.