Research On The Relationship Between Real Estate Bubble And Financial Leverage Effect

In recent years,China's real estate market is generally in the boom period,but the real estate market bubble is often use of financial leverage to further enlarge the risk,which will obviously hinder the improvement of people's livelihood.To this end,the local government actively carry out the control of real estate market,the property market regulation of hot areas show some effect,but their real estate market bubble level is still high.By studying the relationship between the real estate bubble and the financial leverage,this paper can make the government and financial institutions clear which property market regulations and control policies are more effective,which areas need to control,the place where need to control to use of what kind of financial policies are more effective.Through the study of domestic and foreign literature,straighten out my own research methods and ideas.Based on the quarterly data,this paper chooses the ratio of sales volume of real estate and regional GDP as the dependent variable,use the currency multiplier,the first suite down payment ratio and the domestic loan of the real estate development enterprises as the independent variables,construct the auto-regression and error correction model,the variable intercept of fixed-effect model.This paper analyzes the influence of the representative financial leverage on the real estate bubble level from the national and regional perspectives.Empirical studies show that there is a partial bubble in China's real estate market,and the bubble itself has a certain inertia.From the national average,the economic system will automatically eliminate the 34.7% of the non-equilibrium deviation error of three phase front.From the perspective of the coefficient influence of each financial leverage,the coefficient of influence of money multiplier is the largest.In areas where there is a bubble,the currency multiplier,the first suite down payment lever,the self-lagging variable of the variable,there are increasing trend towards the increase of the dependence of the region's GDP on real estate.Contrary to the above variables,domestic loans of real estate development enterprises,with the region's GDP dependence on real estate increased,its trend was weakened.