Clue-s Model-based Land-use Simulation Study

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) has now become the front domain and hot topic of research on global changes. Due to the giant population base and limited land resources, as well as the urgent transformation of economic development mode under hard restriction of land resources, it is of great practical significance to LUCC research.Methods of the paper are as follows:firstly, with the analysis of physical, socioeconomic (SES) factors and land use status, as well as the survey and collection of essential data, it concludes factors affecting land use in Zhenjiang using the improved CLUE-S model; secondly, logistic regression model is used to obtain the probability distribution of the best scale and varied influencing factors for land use changes simulation in Zhenjiang, and GRAY-MARKOV chain prediction model is used to predict needs of different land use types in a certain period of time based on the data of land utilization in the last years; finally, it makes out two fundamental data by coupled the probability distribution and predicted results under the best simulation scale, and put them into the CLUE-S model separately, then comparatively analyze the final two predicted results.Conclusions of the paper are as follows:(1) GRAY-MARKOV chain model which is based on the construction of status division could avoid the influencing factors from SES and policy, while with the consideration of land use status and quantity in different years, which makes the prediction of land use structure more reliable due to its scientific and practical characters, and also an excellent choice for simulation of land use change; (2) discrepancy occurs in Beta diffusivity of different simulated scales, which makes 300*300m the best scale after comparisons of all kinds of simulation results; (3) results match both the general rules of SES development pattern and overall direction of the layout of urban and rural areas, which indicates the scientific and accurate characters of the CLUE-S model; (4) types and quantities of land go into different ways because of different purposes in simulations directed by general land use planning index and result prediction. (5) Through land use/land cover change simulation of the planning targets for the spatial layout of direction, to complement the existing indicators and evidence of decomposition process, it makes layout of future land use of space with more science, and ultimately promote social sustainable economic development.