Research Of Land Use Changes' Simulation And Multiple Scenarios Forecast Based On CLUE-S Model

The purpose of this paper is to simulate and forecast the land use changes in Hejin City in the furture, and reveal its trends and characteristics.The method is selecting 11 natural social economic factors by using CLUE-S model,with 30m as the grid size and 2005 as the base period, to simulate land use changes in the year 2000 and compare the results with 2012 land use current diagram through model validation.This paper sets model prediction of the land use in Hejin City through historical trends scenarios, farmland protection scenarios and ecological development scenarios.The results indicate that 1) the overall accord accuracy in 2012 reaches 86.0%, Kappa index is 0.816, CLUE-S model has a good applicability in Hejin.2) The forecasts show the trend that arable land into urban-rural construction land and woodland is apparent, and the positions mainly are in Hejin aluminum, town and coal mine in northeast of the city.In the historical trends scenarios, urban construction expansion land is the largest.In the farmland protection scenarios, the number of cultivated land into woodland reduces greatly.The paper concludes that CLUE-S model can be applied to simulate and forecast the land-use changes in Hejin City, and reveals the trends and characteristics of the land changes effectively.