Research On The Financial Distress Prediction Model Of The Listed Companies

With the vigorous development of the market economy and the stock market further expanded, the increasingly fierce competition between the listed company, more and more of the listed companies face the failure and then into financial difficulties or even bankruptcy risk. A crisis in trouble for listed companies, not only harm their own survival and healthy development, still can give a creditors, investors bring great losses. Therefore, the financial crsis of the listed company forecast has the vital significance.In this paper, based on previous based on the index system is put forward, joined the stock value index, improved the listed company financial woes prediction index system. This paper has selected similar stage of development, with similar asset scale, time-bound 180 listed companies as the research object, and puts forward the Elman neural network based on the combination forecast model. Finally, using the existing single forecasting model: discriminant analysis, multiple logistic regression, support vector machine, Elman neural network and combination forecast model empirically. During the study, the following respects content for the features:First, In constructing the index system, different from previous studies, this paper joined the stock value index, namely: p/e ratio, p/s ratio, p/b ratio, tobin Q from various aspects, in order to reflect listed the financial position of the company.Second, Elman neural network is built, including the combination forecast model for combination forecasting right reuse of neural network self-learning gain.Third, with the traditional forecasting model respectively, artificial intelligence model and combination forecast model, through the empirical analysis shows that, compared to forecast accuraty artificial intelligence model is superior to the traditional forecasting model, combination forecast model is superior to the single forecasting model.This paper, aiming at the research of the listed company, the accurate, effective financial troubles, so that the prediction for protecting the rights and interests of investors and creditors, operator preventing risks, government departments of macroeconomic regulation and control all have important practical significance.