Passenger Transportation Demand Prediction For Shan Dong Based On DEA

After carefully reading this paper on data envelopment analysis and prediction of transport both on the basis of the literature and found that the existence of traditional forecasting methods are usually the "Economic Forecast" simple instead of "transportation demand forecasting", the direct result of the current traffic Transport demand forecast accuracy is not high, forecasting and planning is always behind the transportation needs of the status quo. Found the use of data envelopment correction technology to the way of historical data, were based on data envelopment analysis of transportation demand forecasting. This article focuses on the work carried out the following.First of all,we study the data envelopment analysis and forecast both transport literature, discovered the existence of traditional forecasting methods with "Economic Forecast" instead of "transportation demand prediction" problem. Advantages and disadvantages of the traditional method to determine the data to carry out correction based on the idea of DEA.Second, the impact on passenger demand and a qualitative analysis of the factors, and the gray relational grade as an indicator to distinguish between the numerous factors to determine the most important factor, as the basis for further data correction.Third, in order to more accurately measure the potential transport demand, we have adopted a modified model based on DEA data, the establishment of the potential demand model, demand potential by calculating the index, a more comprehensive consideration of potential transport demand, and calculate the passenger transport demand.Fourth, summarizes several commonly used forecasting methods now and make a simple evaluation for the appropriate forecasting model we choose to do to prepare, propose the use of neural network prediction method of cloud reasoning.Fifth, proposed DEA-based forecasting models of passenger transport, passenger transport, Shandong Province with the data, Shandong Province, the next few years the total demand for passenger transport is predicted. From the macro control of the overall passenger transport development trends, found that the development process changes and requirements of the relevant factors, so as to develop scientific and rational road network to make the necessary preparations for transport planning, to conform to social development, improve the passenger transport efficiency, to avoid the development of blindness.Sixth, according to the results predicted traffic volume of Shandong Province for the analysis of the traffic control department of the government and the planning and policy formulation put forward countermeasures and suggestions.Innovation of this paper mainly includes three aspects:first, using the gray correlation analysis of factors affecting passenger demand correlation analysis to determine the relationship between the two most closely with the passenger demand for the two factors; second, DEA was established based on correction model of passenger demand data to determine the index formula for potential demand for passenger demand in Shandong Province was amended to pro-vide for the traffic forecast a moderate advance the basic data; thirdly, based on DEA passenger transport demand in Shandong Province forecast ahead of Shandong Province to carry out an appropriate transport infrastructure, provi-ding effective support.