The Market Diffusion Research Of E-Book (EPD) In China Based On Bass Model

Diffusion process of new product research is an important issue on market research. Among those diffusion models, Bass model is the main tool of market diffusion, and the results have practical significance of empirical analysis of economic. However, the model applied in the Chinese market only started the last three decades, and the empirical research is relatively few. This paper aims to empirically analyze the diffusion process of the Chinese e-book market, and then verify the effectiveness of the Bass Models effectiveness in Chinese e-book market, and on this basis combine the model predictions with marketing theory to form the marketing strategy of Chinese e-book business, which has important significance for product development, production, sales and marketing strategy formulation.This paper, uses Bass model of as empirical analysis tool, based on statistical and related theory of marketing projects, fully draws on existing research results at home and abroad, applies statistical methods and mathematical models methods, combines the quantitative analysis with the qualitative analysis, systematically probes the process of the diffusion process of the Chinese e-book market, in combination with computer software tools, estimate the Bass model parameter and make market forecasts. The main contents include:the author makes a quantitative analysis of market conditions and product structure as well as a qualitative analysis of the main factor which has the impact of the proliferation of e-book market. Using historical data, the author makes an estimates of the Bass model parameters, establishes the Bass diffusion model, the Bass model of diffusion of e-book marke。The empirical analysis showed that Bass model can be used to describe the diffusion process of e-book market. Then the author predicts sales of the e-book market, and the results showed that the e-book market in China has remained at a stage between the growing involvement and growth stage. For the next 3 to 4 years, it will reach peak sales and entered maturity in 2014. The e-book sales in the next 4 years will maintain rapid growth and huge market potential. The external influences factors p are low while the internal factors q are much higher, showing that the current channels of communication e-book market in China depends mainly on word of mouth spread. Manufacturer's brand image, product quality and after-sales service are the main factors affecting customer adoption while the proliferation of mass media such as advertising show less significance for.market diffusion. Then, combining marketing theory it suggests that firms should adopt a growing market strategy and pay attention to the role of opinion leaders.The main innovation is:first, the research of applying Bass diffusion model to the process of China's in Chinese e-book market forecasts the sales of next 6 years. The two more effective methods, annual intervals and quarterly intervals, predicted sales growth inflection point of e-book market in China. Second, it breaks the previous simple mode of pursuiting the numerical results, uses the research methods of combining Bass Models with marketing theory, applies Bass model predictions to develop targeted marketing strategies, attaches great importance to the role of opinion leaders, adopts a growing market strategy to help improve the market competitiveness of manufacturers, and points out the trend of the future development of e-book market.