Simulation Analysis Of New Product Diffusion And Enterprise Decision Problems Under Duopoly Market

In the context of globalization,marketization,rapid development of information technology and national innovation strategy,innovative products(new models,new thinking,new practices,etc.)are favorable weapons for the continuous development of modern enterprises in the fierce market competition.The proliferation of innovations is an integral part of the innovation process.The growth of corporate economic interests depends to a large extent on whether consumers buy innovative products and the extent of innovation.Therefore,researching the diffusion process of innovative products and analyzing the key influencing factors have important practical significance for the operation and management of enterprises and products.This paper analyzes its application limitations based on the classic Bass model in the field of innovation diffusion.On the one hand,from the perspective of the competitive market,the current research on the diffusion of innovative products mainly focuses on the analysis of the single product market.As market competition intensifies,innovative products face a competitive market environment with duopoly or oligopoly.On the other hand,from the consumer level,the traditional Bass mathematical model is difficult to accurately and accurately reflect the complex nonlinear characteristics of consumer behavior,and there are still major limitations in analyzing such problems.With the emergence of social media and platforms,research on the impact of consumer behavior in product diffusion and adoption meets the need of the trend of precision marketing.There are still relatively few studies on the impact of heterogeneous consumer behavior on the proliferation of innovative products in a competitive environment.Therefore,this paper combines factors such as market competition environment,consumer behavior,and decay rate of word-of-mouth,and establishes a new product diffusion model under competitive market considering consumer hesitation.System dynamics simulation is applied to analyze the market diffusion process of duopoly products under symmetrical competitive environment and asymmetric competitive environment.Further,different from the basic model using constant parameters,an advanced model considering the time-varying influence of advertising and word of mouth is conducted.Then this paper analyzes the diffusion of duopoly products under two different competitive market with the varying of parameters Finally,on the basis of product diffusion model under asymmetric competitive market,the dissertation explores diffusion model of two competing products entering the market sequentially.The last section analyzes the optimal market entry timing and the optimal promotion strategy for latecomer product,and provide decision support for product operation strategyThrough the analysis of the simulation results,the longer the "hesitation" of some consumers in the market,the negative impact on product sales.Especially for companies that are at a disadvantage in competition,consumers' hesitation will amplify their inferior position in the market competition.However,inferior enterprises can make up for the disadvantages of their competition by enhancing the effect of their product word-of-mouth marketing,and even achieve a split market with their rivals.The decay of word-of-mouth have both negative impact on efficacy and speed of competitive product diffusion.