Bass Diffusion Model For Chinese Projector Market

Since Bass model which describes the diffusion path of durable products was put forward in 1969, it has been a major tool in the research of diffusion, and it has been studied and applied broadly and deeply in the recent 40 years. It is very important for market forecasting, pricing, investing to the study of market diffusion of new product or new technology. Based on the basic theory of product diffusion, this paper analyzes the present situation, the development process and the structure of Chinese projector market. In addition, we analyze the factors of projector diffusion on the basis of the product diffusion theory.We use the innovation diffusion theory and Bass diffusion model to study the Chinese projector market. By using the statistic data, we estimate the parameters of the model and then establish a projector consumer diffusion model. Based on this model, we forecast the projector diffusion process and the sales peak for the next several years. Based on the analysis, we can see the Bass model can describe the diffusion process in Chinese projector market successfully. It is obvious that Chinese projector market will develop at a high speed for the next several years and then reach a stage of maturity. The projector diffusion process is more influenced by the word of mouth effect instead of the mass media effect. As a result, it is significant for projector enterprises to improve the quality and service of their products in order to enhance their competitiveness.Meanwhile, this paper use the Bass model to analyzes the diffusion process in 7 regional projector markets, and then segment the whole projector market based on diffusion variables of different regional markets, so that it can offer proposals for projector enterprises to develop differentiation strategy in different segment markets. Based on the analysis, the diffusion process is faster and influenced more by the mass media effect in developed regions including North, East and South China, so the projector enterprises should adopt a market penetration strategy. In contrast, the diffusion process is slower and influenced more by the word of mouth effect in underdeveloped regions including Central, Southwest, Northwest and Northwest China, where the market potential is huge, so the projector enterprises should attach more importance to these 4 regional markets in the market development.