The Relationship Research On Real Estate Index Cycle And Shanghai Index Cycle

As we all know, usually macroeconomic have two characteristics of cycles and trends, while the real estate industry as the key areas of national economy and key industries should also have these characteristics.Study of the industry especially in fields of cycles has been hot.periodic identification, explanation, causes and projections are foucs in the industry.The main Methods are relationship between the economic cycle and real estate,and the cycle of real estate which is also the market cycle.the main indicators of economic indicators or the main entity is the current price index. The main focus of the study is the identification of the economic cycle, Interpretation and Analysis. As this article, consider the economic cycle of the real estate cycle and the relationship between the national economy, based on the use of the price of real estate market cycle indicators. But also to the difference is that this price index is a function of the price index forecast indicators. As a "barometer of national economy," the stock index can serve as such a natural role. This paper uses a theoretical analysis, empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods.Current research on the real estate industry in a relatively mature stage.innovation is difficult, but the research point of view or can be varied.In the paper,this approach in the study, research content, research focus, main indicators have the breakthrough. Special to note is that this economic cycle, while in the study, first of all the factors taken into account the existence of possible trends, the research trend of the period are based on the case to get out. Followed by the contents of the study is to examine not only the period between the two, but the content of the introduction of rational expectations, the market correction to take into account the psychology, comparative psychology that without correcting the parameters of the different factors, continuous cycle, state probability and state transition smooth.last, cycle turning point not to compare a fixed point in time to measure, but in the form of a probability performance.The first part in the paper give inclutions of macroeconomic and the real estate,and the same time,it gives some concepts.The second part is the whole estimated process.first half is the research of trends in them,which considers the relations of long-run equilibrium and short-term correction and tests the stability of this relationship.Trends in the second half is to go after the period of study which analyzes whether the overall market, with some correction in the case of psychological factors that, in the estimated parameters, the average continuous cycle, smoothing probability and state transition conditions,and considers the psychology of this market correction in the transformation of the role of market risk. Assessment of probability is in the form of an average length of continuous cycle.The third part is the analysis of psychological factors with or without the premise of the market correction, the real estate market to external shocks model, the impact of the duration.The fourth part is Policy Recommendations and conclusion. Based on the results of that rational expectations theory can not explain this kind of market correction psychology. Differences is gived incomparison with some general parameters, average duration of cycle, smoothing the transfer status of probability and state the similarities and differences. Against external shocks were compared.