The Economy Cycle Analysis Of China Based On Input-Output Coefficient Matrix

Economic cycle model is the foundation of measure and evaluation about the runningstate of economic comprehensive,which has a wide rangle of application in macroeconom-ic regulation.The Input-Output table made by our country provides accurate and reliabledata for getting the frequency spectrum of system through the model,which is important inthe research of the cycle of economic system spectrum.Firstly,this paper summaries the development of the theory of economic cycleprocess,and its application in our country development,then introduces some theory aboutdifferential equations and the spectral analysis of time serics.Secondly, this paper considers cycle is the control mechanisms which maintains theactual economic and the synergies between departments is easier to reveal themechanism.So it constructs a nonlinear cyclic growth model of an open economy with aninput-output coefficient matrix,which describes the economic cycle caused by the crossadjustment mechanism of the price and gives a method of getting the system spectrum.Then,the periodic frequency spectrums of Chinese economic growth are calculatedwith a simplified form of that model based on the42sector input-output tables of2002and2007of China. The results show that in a short period of spectrum Chinese economyperforms cyclic motions mainly in about6years.The types ot system spectral include4years,5years,6years,7years,8years,9years,10years,11years and12years,which can begeneralized to be inventory cycle,new technology cycle and main equipmentscycle.Meanwhile,according to the spectral analysis of time serics,this paper makes aresearch about the spectrum of China,which gets the same result of the model and verifiesthe reliability and accuracy of the model.Finally,according to the nonlinear cyclic growth model,the paper finishes calculatingthe economic cycle of China,which will be used for the further research of the forecast ofthe running economic system.