Analysis Of The Coordinated Development Trend Of Logistic Industry And Economic Based On The Gray Theory

Logistics and economy complement each other. The relationship between them can be mutually reinforcing one, and also can be the suppress one. If the relationship between them belongs to the first one, there will be a chain reaction: from the standpoint of the logistics industry, with its development, it will expand the scope of the market, promote the further specialization of social division of labor, optimize the industrial structure, and get rich in industrial patterns. It also can improve the investment environment, promote regional investment and the inflow of foreign capital. Further more, it can reduce the social and economic running costs, cause a scale effect and optimize the regional economic growth.Besides these, it also can speed up the process of global economic integration, and so on. While from the economic standpoint, the division of the industry will be more refined, which facilitate the development of circulation. Thus it will increase the demand on the logistics industry, in order to accelerate the development of logistics industry. From certain extent, the development level of economic will determine the modernization level of logistics industry, and so on. Therefore, it is very necessary to maintain the relationship, which can promote the coordination of the logistics industry and economic development. In coordinating the process of development, that understanding the factors, affecting the coordinated development, and the coordinated development of the situation becomes even more important.In this paper, we take Jiangxi Province as an example. We study its coordinated development between the logistics industry and the economy from 2010 to 2019. The main study is divided into three parts:Part I: it mainly contains three chapters, just from Chapter One to Chapter Four. It defined the scope, the study status of assessment at home and abroad. Then we analyze the gray theory and related theories. On the basis of these, we conduct a qualitative analysis on both the logistics industry and the economic development situation in Jiangxi Province, their coordinated development and the mechanism.Part II: it mainly contains two chapters: the fifth one and the sixth one. Firstly, we use the gray relational method to calculate the correlation between the two, for finding out the mainly stress logistics factor-the demand, which is represented by freight and logistics cargo turnover level, while the paramount logistics factor is economic structure, represented by the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP. On this basis, we establish the Coupled model to obtain the coupling level and the development trends, that is: in both cases, development path is in the similar, and the development trend of coupling is relatively stable overall, at a level above 0.5. The gradual upward trend shows a gradual downward trend after 2005. The reason is that these overall evaluation of the strong development momentum of the original data, decreased significantly by the international financial crisis, which cause the coupling trend rising first, then dropping obviously. But with the economic recovery and development, they also will recovery soon.Then we establish coordination evaluation model to determine the status of the coordinated development about Jiangxi Province during the time from 2000 to 2009. We find that in this decade, the economy of Jiangxi Province and the coordination development of logistics industry and the economy of Jiangxi Province keep in good condition, which is still in medium state; but during the last two years, the gradual trend decline in the degree of coordination, indicating that Jiangxi government should take effective measures to promote their coordinated development.Finally, we predict their coordinated development in the next decade, and we find that the overall coordination of the state were in the middle, but was gradually decreased to a disorder state. This is an early warning for Jiangxi Province. Not only we should keep their own development, but also we should maintain their mutually reinforcing relationship, in order to lead them development in the coordinated state.Part III: it is summary and outlook. We summary of the text, and point out the inadequacies of the study and find future research directions.The innovation lies in the innovation of the subject: The usual study focused largely on the evaluation over a period of time in the past. But we are more concerned about the future development of the two, so in this article we predict their future trend, for better guiding future policy directions.