China Economic Multidisciplinary Trend Prediction Based On Sd Simulation

Economic system is a complex giant system, sustainable economic development musttake into account a variety of factors' dynamic mechanism. Different countries have theirown system of economic system, this dissertation based on the Chinese economic systemas the research object, the system dynamics on the basis of Chinese economic system,combined with the actual situation, discusses the characteristic of system of economy ofchina. The purpose of this study is to establish the Chinese economic system dynamicssimulation model, use this model to our country economy in the existing developmentmode forecast, and to find the system of our country economy development optimizationscheme makes the preliminary attempt.This paper firstly analyzes the Chinese economic system structure, straighten out theeconomic system in China the main feedback loop, build economic system of causaldiagram, and according to the causality diagram drawing of Chinese economic systemflow diagram. Through the experiment to determine the relation between economicvariables. And in system dynamics software Vensim PLE based on system dynamicsmodel in experiment, the final simulation results and the actual value of the relative errorof less than7%.Then in the establishment of the Chinese economic system dynamics model on thebasis of economic development, and carried out scientific prediction. The importantindexes are analyzed. The prediction results based on the analysis of Chinese economysystem, aiming at the existing problems, to design the four kinds of simulation methods,comparing the simulation results are given brief analysis.Finally, to Chinese economic system simulation prediction and the prediction resultsof four kinds of scheme on the basis of the analysis, the four aspect gives our countryeconomy development the proposal of a few countermeasure.