Forecast Research On Baltic Dry Index Based On System Dynamics

With the continuous recovery of the world economy and the increasing of international trade volume,the importance of dry bulk shipping market becoming more and more important.In recent years,by the financial crisis,the shipping industry has been showing a downturn,the Baltic Dry Index as the shipping market is a barometer of the economy,research its trend and structure can grasp the rule of the market,then provide scientific reference for the industry.Dry bulk shipping market has the characteristics of complete competition.But it is not difficult to find that in recent years,the external factors such as the financial environment,political structure,the global economic situation are increasingly affecting the trend of the index,its influence can not been ignored.Through the observation of historical data,we can clearly see the new shipbuilding orders,such as the volume of the ship volatile fluctuations,the need to further explore the factors that affect its volatility,and then analyse the capacity profoundly.So in the study of the BDI,we must see the dry bulk shipping market as a complex system of nonlinear,multi dimension.Previous research usually use econometric method,but this method often ignored the interaction of the elements in the system,and some factors are difficult to quantify.This paper introduces the system dynamics model of innovation,give full play to the system dynamics in the study of complex dynamic feedback system.So we can study on the changing rules and future trend of freight index in dry bulk shipping market.In this paper,the research object is the dry bulk shipping market,starting from the basic theoretical knowledge of the market,analyze the status quo and comprehensive analyse the factors affecting the supply and demand of the market.According to the relations establishing the system dynamics model.Determine the system boundary,variables,the relationship between variables,draw the flow chart,complete the model.Finally,to validate the reliability,we should check model,after inspection,the model is used to predict the trends of BDI,and set the economy,shipping,financial scenarios to see the effects on the price index,hope result can be a reference for the industry.