| The aim of this paper is to study the industrial structure upgrading of China bythe method of the input-output analysis and the hypothetical extraction method. Westudied the input-output table with21sectors of China from2002to2010andintroduced some concepts such as demand emissions and output emissions for ain-depth analysis. Finally, we built a system dynamics model to forecast the GDP andcarbon emissions of next20years. To the end, this paper could provides some usefuladvices to the industrial structure upgrading of China.This paper includes five chapters. The first chapter introduces the background ofindustrial structure, the theory and research status. The second chapter analysis thecarbon emissions status of China, compares with other8countries, includingdeveloped countries and developing countries. This part can establish a foundation forthe subsequent research. The third chapter uses the input-output analysis and thehypothetical extraction method for a future analysis. Analyze the linkages ofindustrial carbon emissions, which were measured by internal emission, complexemission, net forward linkage emission and net backward linkage emission. Wediscovered the linkage in the industry blocks and the energy sector is the biggest “CO2output sector”. To some extent, the energy sector bears a lot of carbon emissions forother sectors. The forth chapter continues the study based on the previous chapter. Webuilt a system dynamics model, which contained the economic subsystem, theenvironment subsystem, the population subsystem. This system dynamics model wasbuilt to simulate the GDP and total carbon emissions in three scenarios. Finally, wefound that invested more capital to service, high-technology sectors simply could notreduce the total carbon emissions of China. The linkage of carbon emissions between8industry blocks need to be pay attention. The last chapter summarizes the situationof carbon emissions and the industrial linkages in China, and gives some outlooks ofthe future study. |
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