The Study On Investment Decision Of Logistics Nodes Project Based On Real Option Theory

At present, more and more scholars consider the logistics to be artery of the development of national economy. The goal of logistics is to integrate transport, warehousing, distribution and other aspects as a whole using nodes and thus to reduce the cost to business and society to expand benefits. Currently, more and more people have started to join the logistics industry and the Internet economy called the important content of "new economy".Competition in the modern economy can be said to be the competition distribution efficiency. The scale of China's logistics flow is still relatively small, the efficiency is still relatively low, so that how to speed up the development of the logistics industry has become a top priority. In this context, the strategic importance of integrated logistics joint research is obviously very meaningfulHowever, due to the large investment, long period and uncertainties, investment into integrated nodes project force investors to bear large risk. At present, for the integrated logistics investment decision node, the traditional method of investment analysis is still used, and previous research has already proved that such a method only applies to relatively stable cash flow projects, but for uncertainty and strategic Integrated logistics node project, evaluating the use of these methods are often not comprehensive enough and may lead to missing investment opportunities, and may even lead to wrong investment decisions. The authors found that use of real options approach to this kind of uncertainty and strategic investment analysis of projects will be closer to the truth of the assessment results. So the real options method introduced to the project of comprehensive logistics node investment decision-making should be able to achieve better resultsAfter a lot of study on nodes in the logistics of projects and the basic theory of real options, the author found that integrated logistics node project itself has a number of management flexibility, the most important investments are phased and delayed investment. In addition to the management flexibility, the comprehensive logistics node will also have the characteristics of strategic. In order to quantify the integrated logistics node project's strategic value, we assume that the market is more complete, companies can access the information it needs, then the investment in integrated logistics node can roughly be estimated when the increased amount of work the project has brought. On this basis and we assume that pre-investment enterprise to be effective, the problem of resources idle does not exist, so in order to complete the increased work, we have to repurchased additional vehicles and assign staff recourse for them.Finally, an empirical study is introduced to test the correctness of the theory to reach the point that using the idea above is more accurate to reflect the strategic value of comprehensive logistic nodes, however, due to that time and energy are limited, the value of delay option is not involved into account.