Research On The Dynamic Relationship Between The Level Of Rural Logistics And Peasants' Income In Hunan Province

Rural logistics is fundamental industry to develop rural economy and other industries in the countryside, and it is also the guarantee and mainstay of rural economy and other industries. However, the development level of rural logistics is always being behind the development of rural economic requirements, and it begins to hinder the further development of the country economy and threats the social stability in the countryside. Besides imperfect infrastructural facilities of rural logistics,it is the other important reason for insufficient demand for rural logistics. In recent years, scholars supposed to develop rural logistics for helping promote the rural economic increase and improve peasants'income. And as examining the reality in these years, rural logistics growth indeed shows powerful in stimulating peasants'income. Yet the relation between rural logistics in China and peasants'income growth is a so complex systematical problem and there are only some quality and simple quatity researchs on it among academic circles at present. It is still a blank on how rural logistics promotes peasants'income, how much rural logistics contributes to peasants'income and contrarily how peasants'income promotes rural logistics.System Dynamics is a common way which is taken to resolve the complicated social and economic system. It builds a model through microscopic causality within a system, analyses the inner relation between the construction of a system and behavior by the use of simulational computer technology and then explores the solution for the problem. And Granger Causality Analysis is a quantitative Method on the causality among avalibles. So this research combines econometrics with system dynamics during the process.This article analyses the interaction between the level of rural logistics and peasants'income in Hunan Province based on historical datum, examines the cause-effect between variables and set up a systematical dynamical mode on both peasants'income and rural logistics. This mode cosists of such variables as peasants'income, the first Industry, GDP, rural consumption, the output value of rural logistics, Investment in the fixed assets.They are mutually dependent and inter-acting. After proving the validity of model by means of historical test and Analyses of parameters sensitivity,this text emulate relations between peasants' income and the development of rural logistics,and then make a strategic decision by means of adjusting exogenic parameters. As showed in the simulated result, the development of rural logistics and farmers'income are interdependent and promote with each other.At last, On the base of analysis of the results this article propose some advise that can impove the whole efficency of rural logistics industy.