Spatial-Temporal Analyze And Simulation Of Fuzhou's Housing Land Prices Based On Geostatistics

This article analyses the urban residential land prices in spatial-temporal evolvement of urban housing land price and its simulation based on Geostatistics, and give an empirical study of residential land price in Fuzhou city. The main purpose of the study is to give multi-angle analyses of the urban residential land prices by the combination of space and time, and creates the forecast map of land surface by Digital Land Price Model, in order to provides a visual reference to the urban land price monitoring.The main contents include the following:(1)Based on the theory of geostatistics, the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) technology was employed to analysis the Residential land price and its spatial correlation.(2) The model of spatial interpolation was established and the semi-variogram was used to analyze spatial patterns of land prices from the variability of land under anisotropic and isotropic of the two aspects.(3)By comparing the interpolation methods, this paper based on kriging interpolation to give the spatial local estimation of land price, and the spatial distribution of urban residential land characteristics were analyzed.(4)The premium three-dimensional map was established to analyze the time evolutionary results of Fuzhou's residential land prices from the land price section under central base point and through urban area of the two aspects.(5)The paper created the Digital Land Price Model to give the initial prediction of land prices.The conclusions are as follows:(1)There are apparent quadratic north-south trend after Amended and logarithmic transformation of Fuzhou's residential land prices in the spatial distribution. Moran'sⅠindex, Moran scatter plot and LISA cluster map show the residential land prices in Fuzhou has a distinct spatial clustering features from three aspects.(2)The semivariogram model fitting precision comparative analysis and cross-validation results show that spherical model has a minimal residual standard deviation, which established a semi-spherical model variogram analysis of the spatial continuity and variability of land price under the variability of anisotropic and isotropic. The results show that in 0-7000m range, the structure of residential land price of Fuzhou characterized as isotropic, variable range for the 6000m.When the step grew up to the 7000m, the four directions of the semi-variance shows a significant variation, and southwest-northeast direction shows the most variation.(3)By comparing the interpolation methods, this paper based on kriging interpolation to give the spatial local estimation of land price. By drawing contour lines and traffic overlay map, residential land price in Fuzhou takes on continuity in general and variability in local, and land value contour take on multi-center concentric circles structure.(4)Time evolution of land price shows that, central base point of the profile is decreasing from the center to the edge in the six different directions.Profile through urban area shows fluctuate in the first and then decreased from one edge to another edge of the residential land to the four different directions.(5)A digital land price model was set up to give the initial predict of the land price. The expected level diagram, the spatial distribution trend analysis of the residential land and its evolution have given instructions from the three aspects.