Study On The Effect Of US Cotton Planting Willingness On CNCRC's Cotton Reserves Policy

China is not only the largest cotton-producing country in the world, but also the largest cotton-consumption country. In recent years, along with the dependence on cotton importing, US becomes the largest exporter of cotton to China. There exists obviously importing and exporting game relationship between China and US in the cotton market. So studying American farmers'cotton planting willingness could help us to hold and deal with possible changes of future cotton market better, and meanwhile we could be at a advantageous position in the game. China National Cotton Reserves Corporation (CNCRC) bears the heavy burden of cotton market's macro-control of our country. But because of lots of reasons, such as short time of founding, imperfect management, non-scientific monitoring methods and so on, the effects of CNCRC are not very good, and even caused huge losses of itself. Based on this situation, this thesis combines the statistical prediction methods, qualitative forecasting methods and some other methods to forecast the American famers'cotton planting willingness. According to the results of prediction, we studied reserve policy of cotton of on CNCRC. The main contents are as follows:Firstly, the thesis describes the background and significance of the topic, summarizes relevant research at home and abroad, and points out the poor research methods of cotton storage strategy and less attention on external environment and international market. The thesis summarizes the significance and function of cotton reserving, the impact factors, qualitative and quantitative prediction methods, combination forecasting methods and so on.Secondly, we collected USDA related report data from 1981 to 2009, adopted correlation analysis, regression analysis and built sorts of models to predict cotton planting desire, thus choose the optimal result. And then, we used combination models predict cotton planting willingness, including mean combination model and intelligent combination model. At the same time we constructed qualitative rules, combinated with quantitative analysis, to improving the prediction values.Thirdly, based on cotton current situation in China, combined with the impact of cotton market fluctuations in America, according to the forecasting models above, we offered empirical research of American cotton planting willingness in 2010 and 2011. The result show that US cotton planting willingness rises respectively in 2010 and 2011 comparing with last year's. So, CNCRC should adopt defensive strategy mainly to avoid shock of superabundant cotton inflow from the United States.Finally, summarizes the full-text, and looks forward to the research works in the future. The research about the thesis could help CNCRC set out scientific cotton reserve policy, and could act beneficial guidance and reference for cotton planting, produce and marketing in China.