Research Of Risk Assessment Model On BOT Project Franchise Contract

At present, the BOT (build-operate-transfer) mode has been used increasingly in domestic and foreign. It makes related departments that are cross-border focus on some large engineering projects, realizing the efficient circulation of the talent, technology and capital. Especially, it solves the financial difficulties for the construction of infrastructure, and creates more social value.This paper firstly expounds the application status quo of the BOT mode at home and abroad and its existing problems detailedly, pointing out that the complex structure characteristics of BOT mode brings new test to the state regulations system while solving some of the problems. Then, the author explores contract management issue, taking that the purpose of risk manage is to manage contract well as main line.This paper summarizes the contracts involved in BOT mode projects. Among them, the franchise contract acts as the main contract status, other contracts are based on this contract, and serve for the main contract. And the thesis expounds contract terms of six major BOT project, referring to FIDIC contract terms and contract text of the domestic and foreign typical BOT project cases.Then, under the premise of analyzing risk factors of typical infrastructure BOT project contract terms, the author establishes the risk evaluation index systems based on the main parties, and elaborates the risk correlation between contract terms.The author adopts quantitative analysis to study dynamic influence between the BOT projects'risk factors. The thesis mainly uses the method of probability and mathematical statistics establishes a risk evaluation model, and uses matlab software tools for dynamic simulation. In given conditions, the model presents hyper-cycle international relations between various risks within a time range. The paper makes a empirical analysis with Chengdu No.6 Water Plant B BOT project as an example, and results show that model is feasible.Finally, the model returns to analyze the drag effect between contracts. The ultimate aim is to facilitate participants dialectically reconsider the possibility of the existence of various contract risks before signing the contract and avoid risk better.This paper establishes the risk evaluation model based on the analysis of the contract clauses, and provides a meaningful reference for participants while assessing the contract risks. The model can be popularized and applied widely, which have great theoretical value and application value.