Research On The Fluctuations Of The Real Estate Price On The Impact Of Macroeconomic

As real estate industry is a pillar industry of national economy, its healthy development receives an increasing attention from all walks of life. In recent years, the price standard of real estate in our country has raised rapidly, the real estate froth started to inflate, and the investment in real estate is climbing gradually to the first place to the GDP technical progress factor, as a result, the influence on macro economy made by the real estate industry has naturally become the focal point of research. Price, as a central index of the real estate, is a sign of real estate development. In a sense, the impact on macro economy of the real estate is the influence made by price fluctuations on macro economy. Therefore, research on and an accurate grasp of the impacts on macro economy made by price fluctuations as well as the degree of these impacts are of great significance.This paper, based on the research results of home and abroad, from the perspective of the influence of price fluctuation on macroeconomic developments, has simply analyzed two classical cases: the Japanese real estate bubble and the United States sub prime mortgage crisis. The research topic divided into two: consumption and investment, and discussed the various channels of impacts on consumption and investment caused by price fluctuation, then qualitatively analyzed the combined effect under various conduction effect. In the end, take the macroeconomics and the real estate economic as the backing, with the use of econometrics analysis tool, the paper has carried on a large number of empirical test on price, consumption and investment data of real estate in China.Through the fundamental research there comes the conclusion: The house price fluctuation affects consumption through the wealth effect, the fluid restraint effect, the budget restraint effect, the substitution effect and the cost effect and investment through Tobin the Q effect, the balance sheet effect, the economy anticipation effect, the connection effect, the anticipation intervention effect. We need to analyze the vectorial resultant of these effects to decide whether it is promotion or suppression for macro economy. Through empirical analysis, we can draw a conclusion that the rocketing real estate price has made a negative effect on consumption and a positive one on investment. Although the real estate industry has made a contribution to the increasing of GDP, it goes against the long-term objective of our country to expand domestic demand, stimulate consumption, and control the overheated investment as well as to restructure economy.The purpose of this study is to enable people to understand the impact of house price fluctuation on macro economy more deep and clarify various channels and mechanism of these impacts, so that to devote to the future research on the coordinated development of real estate and macro economy and can also provide the policy-makers the theory to use for reference proved with the practice on carrying out macro-control.