The Empirical Study Of Interactive Relationship Between The Adjustment Of Industrial Structure And Urbanization Of Shandong Province

The adjustment of industrial structure and urbanization are two key elements to the sustainable and healthy development of regional economy. The level of industrial structure is related to the speed and quality of a region's social and economic development. Meanwhile the level of urbanization influences the harmony and stability of the region. They can't separate from each other for a region's social and economic development. The level of urbanization in our country is still low. It has become an important obstacle for the further development of the regional industry which makes the adjustment and optimization of regional industrial structure face great challenge. Meanwhile, unreasonable industrial structure, at certain extent, blocks up the development of regional urbanization.In one word, the adjustment of industrial structure and urbanization interact with each other. Their coordination is the base of the economic sustainable development in a region. So this paper takes Shandong province as study object for the empirical research of the correlation between them.Based on the theory of the adjustment of industrial structure, urbanization and the interactive relationship between them, firstly, this paper further understands the connotation of the adjustment of industrial structure and urbanization in the new period, then analyses the interactive mechanism between them. Secondly, this paper builds two index systems which are used to measure the level of the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure and urbanization in Shandong province, then analyses the present conditions of them. Thirdly, this paper empirically analyses the interrelation between the levels of the adjustment of industrial structure and urbanization through co-integration text, causal analysis, and impulse response from 1984 to 2009. The results of the research are as follows. There is a positive relationship between the overall level of the adjustment of industrial structure and population urbanization. There are at least two co-integration relationships among the overall level of urbanization, the level of industrial structure supererogation, the rationalization of industrial structure and the internationalization of industrial structure. Casual test finds that the overall level of the adjustment of industrial structure and population urbanization mutually interact, and the latter is the longer-term reason of the former. Moreover, there is causal relationship among the overall level of urbanization, the level of industrial structure supererogation and the rationalization of industrial structure. Through impulse response and variance decomposition analyses, this paper shows that the overall level of the adjustment of industrial structure can promote the increase of population urbanization obviously. But the contributive rate of population urbanization to the overall level of the adjustment of industrial structure is much bigger than the contributive rate of the adjustment of industrial structure to population urbanization. In addition, the overall level of urbanization has obvious positive function to the industrial structure supererogation and the rationalization of industrial structure. Conversely, the latter two also have the same positive function to urbanization. This paper also finds that compared to the rationalization industrial structure, the contributive rate of industrial structure supererogation to the overall level of urbanization is bigger. But, conversely the contributive rate of urbanization to the rationalization of industrial structure is bigger. In the end, this paper gives some suggestions based on the problems which appeared in the interactive development between the adjustment of industrial structure and urbanization.