Bilateral Trade Volume And Potential Between China And Asean

China and ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA for short) unveiled itself in the pastdecade since 2002. Framework Agreement on Comprehensive EconomicCo-operation was signed by two parties involved that year between the People'sRepublic of China and the Association of South East Asian Nations. The tradingvolume in this free trade area will account for 13% of world's trading volume in thenear future. Challenges come along with opportunities. How to seize the opportunitiesand face up to the obstacles will be a key research topic for us. Is there any potentialfor China to upscale its export volume to ASEAN?Tinbergen introduced trade gravity model into the research of international orregional trade volume in 1962. Up till now, trade gravity model has become animportant tool in the field of bilateral trade volume analysis. The researchers fromhome and abroad have done lots of studies on theory and empirical research of tradegravity model. According to empirical research of trade gravity model, though tradegravity model lacks theoretical foundation, trade gravity model can explain the tradevolume between different countries to great extent.In order to further explore such topics mentioned above, we analyze China'sexport volume to ASEAN from 1990 to 2009, by modifying and tailoring the tradegravity model put forward by Tinbergen to better match present status of bilateraltrade. The linear regression makes it possible for us to find out the most important factors that affect the export volume from China to its ASEAN counterparts andforecast China's export volume in 2010. This paper ends itself with constructiveproposals to ensure the fast and steady growth of export volume.