The Cycle And Decomposition Of Housing Price Fluctuations In China

Since the marketization of housing distribution in 1998,China's real estate market has developed rapidly.But at the same time,there have been several large fluctuations in China's housing prices.Especially in the past 20 years,the sharp and frequent fluctuations in housing prices have seriously affected the normal life of Chinese residents,which has aroused great concern of the whole society.Based on the latest domestic average selling price data of commercial housing and the operation law of China's housing prices,this paper applies Beveridge-Nelson decomposition method to decompose China's average selling price of commercial housing from January 1998 to December 201 8 into determinant trend,stochastic trend and business cycle.This paper finds out the useful information and basic characteristics in the fluctuation of housing prices.The decomposition results show that:(1)There is a robust determinant trend in China's housing prices,and the change of determinant trend is the main reason for the rapid growth of housing prices in China;(2)China's real estate market has experienced 8 rounds of basically complete cycles in the past 21 years,and there is a main cycle of about 3 years and a secondary cycle of 2 years;(3)In general,the real estate regulation policy exerts significant effect on housing price,while stochastic shock like economic crisis has less impact.These stochastic shocks not only amplify the contradiction between supply and demand in China's real estate market,but also exacerbate frequent fluctuations of China's housing prices.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations.Firstly,the government should adopt a discretionary,flexible and stable policy,do a good job in information guidance and publicity,and create a stable real estate environment.And then,the government should improve the supervision system of China's real estate market,strictly control speculative speculation,hoarding,manipulating market prices,fabricating false information and other speculative activities.Finally,we should improve China's land supply market,respect the law of the real estate market,and let the market play its role in optimizing the allocation of resources.It is worth noting that the government should consider the lag of the real estate regulation policy when formulating it,and be alert to the imbalance between supply and demand in China's real estate market.The periodic decomposition of the China's average selling price of commercial housing not only supplements and develops the existing domestic theoretical research,but also has an important practical and theoretical significance for comprehensively and systematically understanding the fluctuation and operation law of housing prices and promoting the stable development of China's real estate market.