An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Restricted Purchase Policy On Housing Volume And Housing Price

Since the implementation of house purchase restriction policy at 2011,the Housing demand has been restrained to a certain degree.However,a large number of facts show that the introduction of this policy has noe effect on prices,House prices seem to be rose higher,which stimulates a part of the developers of land demand.What's more,the local government relies heavily on land finance and promotes urbanization blindly,A lot of land to be auctioned,and was developed,which makes supply exceeds demand seriously in real estate market.By the second half of 2014,our country's housing stock is in serious condition,the government's regulatory focus from "control prices" into "reduce inventory".Since September 2014,many cities have to cancel the restrictions,until June of 2016,46 cities abolish house purchase restriction policy,except Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen.But whether this action has certain effect to reverse the housing market and promote the property market recovery?Whether the effect can last?Through research,this paper tries to answer this question.In order to check whether the abolish of policy can reduce inventory and whether the it will leads to substantial price increase,this paper examines the impact on volume and price in recent and long-term.As the vast difference between east and midwest cities of real estate market,this paper examines divisional impacts after the whole analysis.Based on the quarterly data of 62 cities from 2012 to 2015 and the difference in difference-propensity score matching(PSM-DID)approach,the influence of policy on housing volume and price will be studied.There are three conclusions:First,the policy will continue reduce inventory in a certain extent,But its effect gradually disappeared,and it can't solve the problem of China's inventory radically;Second,the policy effects on the housing price is not significant in short time,but in long time,house prices began to rise;Third,policies can effectively promote the housing turnover in the eastern cities in the short term,but there is no significant effect on the western cites which Inventory problem is more serious,causing "regional imbalance" and "effect mismatch".