A Research On The Affecting Factors Of Fluctuation Of Treasury Bond Market Price Level In China

By 2010, the Financial Storm is still influencing the economy, but the European sovereignty debt crisis has become more and more serious, so the external environment that China faces is getting more and more complicated. In the First Half of the Year, China continues to implement the proactive fiscal policy and looser monetary policy, but many changing financial economic factors, such as the money supply, investment and price index, leaded the Treasury bond market price level ups and downs. Facing the anfractuous internal and external environment, Treasury Bond Market as a macro-control important capital market, this paper expects to discuss the relationship between the price fluctuation of Treasury market and its influence factor, which provides significant reference for Treasury bond market to become a more perfect price forming mechanism.First, review the existing related field research achievements at home and abroad comprehensively; analysis the existing research results, and put forward some opinions and ideas at Treasury bond market situation. Secondly, theoretically analyses Treasury, Treasury Bond Market, The Price of Treasury Bond, The measure about the Price of Treasury Bond Market and the factors affecting the Price of Treasury Bond Market; Present the Treasury bond market in China and its influence factors of price, do it well for the empirical study about subsequent blackboard work. Then, according to the qualitative analysis, choose 100 points of monthly time series data during January 2002 and 2010 March; apply many econometric methods, such as VAR model, Co-integration test and Granger causality test, Pulse analysis, analysis of variance analysis, the pulse econometric method; Do an empirical study about the relationship between the price level of Treasury bond market and its influence factors; According to the result of the empirical study, Draw some conclusions as following:1. There is a co-integration relationship between the Level of Treasury bond market price and current market price, inflation rate and currency supply, industrial added value, interest rate and the Shanghai index.2. There is not a Granger causality relationship between Interest rate and the Treasury bond market price.3. In the long term, there is a negative relationship between inflation and Treasury bond market price. 4. In the short term, the change of the stock market price has a Greater influence on the level of Treasury bond market price.Finally, according to the empirical results ,combining with the characteristics of Treasury bond market and the reasons for the price not reasonable, put forward some relevant countermeasures and Suggestions to establish scientific and reasonable debt market price forming mechanism.