Research On Industrial Energy Consumption And Energy Efficient In Tianjin

In recent years, the contradiction between economic development and restraining energyconsumption has intensified increasingly along with the high-speed development of economy,extensive industrial scale and continually increased energy consumption in Tianjin. One of thefundamental ways to solve the contradiction between energy shortage and economic growth isreducing energy consumption and increasing energy efficiency.Based on the Twelfth Five-year Tianjin Energy Plan, the two core topics this thesisencloses are reducing energy consumption and increasing energy efficiency. This thesis firstlyanalyzed the energy using character of industrial structure according to conditions of energyconsumption, levels of economic growth and changes of industrial structure in Tianjin. Thenwith forecasting conditions of economic growth and energy consumption according to itschanges over the years, the co-integration model and error correction model between energyconsumption and output value in both the whole city and each industry have been constructedto analyze the long-run equilibrium relationship, short-term fluctuations relationship andGranger causality between energy consumption and industrial output value. In the aspect ofincreasing energy efficiency, we primarily analyzed the main factors that impact changes ofenergy efficiency based on non-parametric Malmquist index and Tobit model deals with limitvalue dependent variable by using33industries in Tianjin as cases. The details showed asfollows:1. Firstly indicating the objective and main content of the research, and then reviewingexistent research involve in relations between energy consumption and economic growth aswell as industrial structures; analyzing the developing tendency theory in this research fieldand concluding the existent theoretical foundation and method of the research; making briefcomments to the problem exists in specific research and the limitation; and identifying thetheoretical foundations this article based on as well as the specific method and model it uses.2. Analyzing the energy industry and its developing conditions which mainly contain itsproduction conditions and total consumption level of energy over the years in Tianjin;analyzing the changes of energy consumption in thrice industrial according to its energy usecharacters, energy consumption elasticity as well as changes of energy strength andquantitatively analyzing the effect of saving energy in industrial structure; forecasting theenergy consumption quantity and output value of thrice industrial in Tianjin during the twelfthfive years with the conditions of energy consumption and industrial production value growth;finally indicating the problems exists in resent energy consumption and situation in future inTianjin based on above analysis.3. Analyzing the conditions of economic growth in Tianjin and the influences made bystructure changes of thrice industrial to energy consumption; cointegration test, causality testand impulse response analysis are taken to analyzing the relations between the total quantityof energy consumption in Tianjin from1978to2009and the gross output in the whole city as well as output vales of thrice industrial by using relevant methods of cointegration theory;building error correction model among variables to quantitatively searching their causality,and the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationships between the energyconsumption quantity in Tianjin and the gross output in the whole city as well as output valuelevel of thrice industrial, in order to reduce energy consumption from the perspective ofreasonably adjusting industrial structure.4. Researching the main factors impact changes of energy efficiency based on the dataabout energy consumption from33of industry profession in Tianjin. Firstly using DEAmethod to evaluate energy efficiency level in industry profession thus indentifying resentenergy efficiency level of industry profession; dividing the energy efficiency into variabilityindex of science and technology development, efficiency index of raw technology andvariability index of scale efficiency and searching influences of the change of eachcomponents in it to energy efficiency by introducing nonparametric Malmquist index; thenconstructing Tobit model to research the extent of its influence to energy efficiency change inindustry profession from the aspects of industrialization standard, inner industrial structure,technical progress, property rights structure, government influence, import and export tradeand energy consumption structure, in order to increase the level of energy efficiency by usingpertinent measures.