The Study On The Relationship Between Urbanization In Liaoning Province And Energy Consumption

As an indispensable material, energy plays an important and fundamental role in a country's economic and social development. China's has always regarded energy as a national important strategic resource during the process of economic development. Since the three decades of reform and opening up. China has achieved rapid economic growth, with average annual growth rate of 9.8%. and economic output has grown from 364.522 billion yuan in 1978 to 30.067 trillion yuan in 2008. However, China's economy is based on the development model of "high input, high pollution and high emission", and as the tremendous growth of economy, a series of energy resources and environmental issues have brought about. At present, the situation of China's energy resources that we're facing is not optimistic. The increasingly serious energy shortage, lack of energy supply, efficiency that needs to be improved as well as the serious environmental pollution have mainly appeared. Thus, how to resolve energy issues related to China's sustained economic and social stability and healthy development.The rapid development of urbanization is not only one of the major phenomena in today's economic and society as well as an important indicator to measure a country's level of development, but also one of the main strong points for economic development of countries all over the world in the future. Since reform and opening. China's urbanization process has been changed from the last stage of development to the stage of rapid development, with urbanization rate of 17.9% in 1978 rising to 46.6% in 2009. The development of urbanization has made great contributions to China's economic growth. The process of urbanization can not do without the inputs of this natural resource energy. Urbanization has two main manifestations:one is the agricultural population engaged in non-agricultural labor, and the non-agricultural population cannot live without the consumption of large quantities of energy resources; the other is improving the living standards of the urban population will also bring about the mass consumption of energy resources. Therefore, how to affect energy consumption in the process of urbanization has become the main problem which so many scholars have concerned. Currently, Liaoning Province's economic growths, level of urbanization and total energy consumption have shown a rapid growth phase. During period of 1978-2008, the economic growth rate has remained above the level 10%.In 2008, Liaoning's economy has reached 1346100000000 yuan, which is 58 times that of 1978; the level of urbanization has grown from 31.74% in 1978 to 49.92% in 2008, rising from the stage of sustainable development into a rapid development stage; total energy consumption has rose from 52.615 million tons of standard coal in 1978 to 177.68 million tons of standard coal in 2008. with average annual growth rate of 11.8%. Meanwhile, Liaoning Province will further accelerate economic growth and improve the level of urbanization according to the national economic developmental strategic plan. In future development, total energy consumption will further increase, energy supply and demand will further highlight the problem of the shortage, and energy shortages will more and more constrain economic growth and urban development.In this context, the paper chose the subject of "the study on the relationship between urbanization in Liaoning province and energy consumption" to explore the relationship between the current development level of urbanization in Liaoning Province and energy consumption. The paper has made a systematic analysis of the total economy, urbanization level and current status of total energy consumption between the year 1978-2008 in Liaoning Province; based on the study of the status quo, the co-integration test in econometrics. Vector Error correction model and Granger (Granger) causality analysis have been used to make an empirical study on the dynamic relationship between urbanization in Liaoning Province and energy consumption, and examines the causal relationship between the long-term energy consumption and short-term as well as the variables of development level of urbanization and the energy consumption in Liaoning Province from 1978 to 2008; from the perspective of theoretical analysis, it builds the CD production function model including investment (K), labor (L) and energy (E), analyzes "Growth tail effect" model of energy consumption constraints on development of economics and urbanization, and provides a theoretical basis for the energy shortage which will impede development of economic and urbanization.At the same time, the size of "growth tail effect " of energy constraint on economic and urban development has been measured by the application of ordinary least squares (OLS). This article also discusses mechanism of urbanization affecting energy consumption in details, pointing out it could affect energy consumption through economic growth, industrial structure, fixed asset investment, technological progress, institutional change and other major factors. Finally, based on the above research and analysis, it puts forward practical political recommendations and provides fundamental basis for development planning of long-term energy system for the relevant departments.In empirical analysis section, this study found that during 1978-2008. the two variables of urbanization in Liaoning Province and energy consumption are non-stationary variables, but there exists long-term stability of two-way interaction between them. Studies have shown that urbanization effects on energy consumption enormously. In the long run. every 1% increase in urbanization leads to increased of 5.38% in energy consumption; in the short run. every 1% increase of urbanization leads to increase of 3.25% in energy consumption, indicating that Liaoning urban development model goes along with a lot of energy consumption. To establish a new urban development of resource-saving and environment-friendly model is the only way for urban development in Liaoning in the future. Theoretical analysis section found that energy constraints in Liaoning Province has made "growth tail effect" on development of economic and urbanization, measuring that with the increase of each one percentage point of binding energy, economic growth will reduce by 6.74%. development of urbanization will reduced by 5.42%. As a result, in the course of future development of Liaoning, we must increase the effective supply of energy;to improve energy efficiency could reduce the effect on development of economics and urbanization from constraints of energy consumption on.Finally, this research has raised targeted and specific political recommendations for the future development of Liaoning. First, in the process of urbanization, we should follow the natural law. integrate and coordinate all kinds of policies, build a scientific and rational system of urban development policy to promote healthy and sustainable urban development. Second, in the process of urban development we should pay attention to energy conservation, accelerate the construction of public transport. develop technologies of green infrastructure. and promote energy efficient buildings. Third. in the process of urban development we should focus on the improvement of energy efficiency, pay attention to the important role of technological progress, increase research investment, and improve energy efficiency. Fourth, in the process of urban development we should open and apply new energy, adjust the structure of energy consumption, not place undue reliance on coal and oil, and develop and apply new low-pollution and even pollution-free energy.