The Effect Of Energy Consumption In The Process Of China's Urbanization

As indispensable material base for production and subsistence in the modern society, energy plays a fundamental role in the national economy and the social progress.The process of urbanization can not be separated from the input of energy.At present,China is entering the mid-stage of the high speed development of urbanization,therefore along with country economic development,the population sustained growth and the urbanized further advancement,the energy issue has become one of bottlenecks of economic growth and urbanization in China.Under this background,besides synthetically utilizing the theories of urban economics,energy economics and modern econometric methods,this article also applies the research ideas,which together theoretical analysis with empirical tests,and together qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis,to study the relationship of mutual influence and restriction between urbanization and energy consumption systematically.It is not only has great theoretical significance but also has very important policy implications.The main research objects and resuls are as follows:1.Based on the inspections concerning the present situations of urbanization and energy consumption in China,comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization and energy consumption are constructed respectively,and comprehensive evaluation analysis on the quality of urbanization and energy using of 1981-2007 in China are carried out.Further,the characteristics of energy consumption fluctuations in China are analyzed by ARCH kinds models.Using some methods such as the entropy equation law and the condition cooperates models,the harmony relationship between energy consumption and urbanization in China are synthetically evaluated.2.Comprehensive using modern econometric methods and techniques such as cointegration theory,error correction model,Granger causality tests,impulse response function and variance decomposition to time series,the dynamic correlation between China urbanization and energy consumption of 1981-2007 are empirical analysis.And distinguish investigated the long-run equilibrium and the short-term dynamic relationship between China urbanization of population,the urbanized composite index and energy consumption.3.To grasp more accurately the relationship of energy consumption and economic growth in the process of urbanization in China,analyzes the occasion in which the structural break of the relation between economic growth and energy consumption in China will be lead to,the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic between energy demand and economic in China is studied with cointegration theory and error correction model,and compared with the model with not considering structural break.4.Based on the two-level nested CES production function which consider threes elements of capital,labor and energy,the classic"growth drag"model is revised,the"growth drag"model of energy constraint on economic growth and urbanization process are constructed,then the restriction degree of energy constraint on China's economic growth and urbanization are analysis by this model.According to the above proposed the path selection process which can alleviate the energy constraints on economic growth and urbanization advancement.5.This dissertation probes into the mechanism of urbanization influence to energy consumption,indicates that urbanization can influence energy consumption through six aspects effects of the industrial organization optimization,the investment drawing,labor input and human capital accumulation,the technological innovation and the technology advancement,the institutional vicissitude and the structure of energy consumption improvement.And the empirical models of urbanization influence to energy consumption is constructed,then discuss the effect degree and effect mechanism of urbanization to energy consumption by mean of multiple perspectives of short and long-term based on the data from 1981 to 2007 in China.On the base of empirical evidence,expound what kind of city model should be choosed to energy-saving target.6.Take the pool purchase price fluctuation forecasting,the risk management decision-making models of power selling for electricity generators and electricity purchasing for power-supplying company in the electricity market as examples,from the micro-perspective to discuss how to build regular energy market and apply risk management to maintain stable energy market operation and guarantee sufficient energy supply in the process of urbanization.