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Research On The Mechanism Of The Effect Of Urbanization On Energy Consumption

Posted on:2013-06-27Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:C CangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2249330395984503Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
As western developed countries have finished urbanization in succession, developing countries, including China, gradually step into the accelerated development stage of urbanization. Due to the different social conditions, the development mode of urbanization is not completely identical, but almost every country will experience a sharp increase in energy consumption caused by urbanization. Compared with the urbanization process of the developed countries, at present, it is much more apparent of the restriction of energy on urbanization. So China’s urbanization can not only copy the mode of developed countries, only by realizing the effective combination of urbanization and production&household energy saving, can we guarantee the sustainable,healthy development of urbanization.Based on the related theories of urbanization and energy consumption, combined with China’s actual situation, this paper analyzes comprehensively the mechanism of the effect of China’s urbanization on energy consumption with the study of the relationship between the two. The mainly content and conclusion was embodied in the following aspects:Firstly, aimed at positioning a clear perspective for the research of the relationship and transmission mechanism between urbanization and energy consumption, we focus on the study of the present situation and features of urbanization development and energy consumption since China’s reform and opening. Through the analysis of the development of urbanization in our country, we find that the most distinct characteristics of urbanization is to drive the development of tertiary industry and enhance the technology level, and also provide important guarantee for the change in the pattern of life of the urban and rural residents on the basis of promoting the economic growth. Meanwhile from the energy consumption perspective, economic growth (including change in lifestlyes,such as income increase of residents etc),the development of the tertiary industry and the improvement of the level of technology are all important factors in affecting energy consumption.Secondly, based on the time-series data from1978to2010in China, this paper carries out empirical research on the dynamic correlations between urbanization and energy consumption using the cointegration analysis and error correction model, and in view of the analysis of current situation of urbanization development and energy consumption, it also tests the linkage effects and transmission mechanism between them based on scale effect, industrial structure effect and technical effect. Results show that there exists the cointegration relationship and short-term error correction mechanism between urbanization and energy consumption; The impact of urbanization on energy consumption displays mainly through its scale effect and the technical effect, but the energy saving effect of the tertiary industry is not obvious yet.Thirdly, taking the industrial sector as a research object, which plays a critical role in decreasing the energy intensity, the paper incorporates the industrial department as ten energy departments by processing energy consumption data of branch trades of industry and adopts AWD method to estimate the structural and technical contribution on the decline of industrial energy intensity. It finds that technological progress is the dominant factor in reducing industrial energy intensity, the structure effect still have great use space.Fourthly, we analyze the mechanism of the effect of urbanization on household energy consumption of residents, and points out that the lifestyle of residents change accordingly with the development urbanization, mainly embodied in the size and structure of floating population, the income level of resident and the change of consumption behavior which will directly or indirectly influence people’s household energy consumption.Just based on the aforementioned analysis, we find that, at present, China’s urbanization development is still comparatively extensive; the restricted function of energy is still very significant. So the article insists that our country should raise the requirement of guiding by policy, fully improve the ability of independent innovation, constantly optimize the industrial structure, improve energy efficiency of each industry and advocate energy-saving way of life, only in this way can we achieve sustainable and rapid economic growth with less energy consumption.
Keywords/Search Tags:Urbanization, Energy consumption, Influence mechanism, cointegrationanalysis, AWD index decomposing
PDF Full Text Request
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