| Modern service industry is the technology and knowledge-intensive service industry based on the new business model, service process and management technology supported by the technology, especially networking and information technology. (Innovation and development of modern service industry in China Forum,2008). Modern service industry has the characteristics such as high growth, high value-added, high knowledge-input and high technology. It becomes the focus of the current world economic development and international competition. Modern service industry includes new services format coupled with technological development and social progress. It also includes the transformation and upgrade of the traditional service industries the modem technology with the modern technology. China's service industry was developed rapidly after 90 years. But the added value share of GDP of our service industry hovered around 40%.It has obvious gap with developed countries, even lower than low-income countries. The status of the overall delay has not fundamentally changed.It hasn't matched with our economy and society with a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development. This thesis thinks that the leading industry of modern service industry should be selected and determined according to the strategic thinking of non-equilibrium and through the development of leading industries to stimulate or promote our modern service industry to promote or facilitate the development of national economy sectors.Consolidated on the basis of relevant literature, this thesis is seriously considered modern service industry characteristics and data availability, as well as leading industry characteristics and the compatibility of resource conditions, from three angles of the demand, supply and comparative advantages, that the development of potential industrial base, technological progress benchmarks and benchmark comparative advantage should be followed by the leading industries of the modern service. And according to the three benchmarks of modern service industry, the index system of the leading industry choice modern service industry in China was built, including seven types of indicators:demand-income elasticity, total factor productivity, speed of technological progress, the contribution of the technological progress to the output growth, gross output value of industry, the scale of fixed assets and employment size. Firstly according to the needs of index calculation, this thesis made a distinction between old and new service sub-sectors before the quantitative analysis of leading industry selection of modern service in China. Then the new sub-sectors of tertiary industry will be merged into the old sub-industry classification and the old sub-sectors of tertiary industry will be taken as the specific object in this thesis. Secondly estimated the capital stock of the modern service industry's sub-sectors, regressed the C-D function by eview5.0 software to calculate total factor productivity and the rate of technological progress of the various segments industry of China's modem service. Finally integrated multi-index factors, the Analytic Hierarchy Process method was be applied to choose the leading industry of the modern service industry in China and determined the lease and business services; information transmission, computer services and software; education, culture and arts, radio, film and television; financial and insurance industry; wholesale and retail trade and catering; traffic, transport, storage and communications services as the leading industries of China's modern service industry and provided the theoretical basis to the policy and strategy of promoting China's modem service industry. |
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