| At present,China's modern service industry is in a high-speed development stage.By2015,the proportion of added value of modern service industry to GDP added value has increased to a high level of 50.2%.This data is also larger than the sum of industry(40.9%)and agriculture(8.9%),which establishes the status of modern service industry as the largest industry in China's national economic system.Because the development of modern service industry shows the advantages of many employment opportunities,large scope of influence and good environmental affinity,it shows remarkable characteristics of sustainable development and is regarded as the key to the transformation and development of national economy in the new period.The 18 th CPC National Congress also affirmed the important position of modern service industry in China's economic structure adjustment,social transformation and development,and industrial upgrading and development,and defined the development direction and goal of modern service industry.The 19 th CPC National Congress pointed out that "China's economy should change from high-speed growth stage to high-quality growth stage,and the key to ensure high-quality development lies in improving total factor productivity ".Therefore,improving the total factor productivity of modern service industry is not only related to the transformation and upgrading of the national economy,but also the key to improve the efficiency and quality of economic development,stimulate innovation and realize China's transition from a large economic country to an economic power.Compared with the traditional manufacturing industry,the management and development of modern service industry shows more significant resource demand,but its resources are not material resources,but mainly human capital,knowledge,information and other intangible resources.Therefore,it is difficult to guarantee the development speed and level of modern service industry by simply relying on the investment of traditional factors of production such as capital and labor,so it is necessary to improve the industrial development ability on the basis of increasing the total factor productivity.Based on the above cognition,this paper takes total factor productivity as the research index,carries on the quantitative analysis to the modern service industry efficiency level,clarifies the quality growth to its development importance.Total factor productivity(TFP)refers to other outputs that can not be affected by factor input in total output,that is,the growth rate of output without factor input growth rate.Based on the theory of endogenous economic growth,the decisive factor of industrial sustainable development is efficiency.Only by improving efficiency effectively can we realize the benign development of industry.Based on the analysis of the existing theoretical research results,it can be seen that industrial agglomeration is based on the premise of promoting industrial efficiency and is also a scientific method to promote the improvement of production efficiency.Therefore,from the point of view of total factor productivity,this paper studies and analyzes the influence of modern service industry agglomeration in China,and discusses whether modern service industry agglomeration can improve industrial production efficiency.The influence mechanism of modern service industry agglomeration on production efficiency is different.The theoretical mechanism and practical effect of three categories of modern service industry agglomeration on total factor productivity are compared and analyzed,Then we can analyze and grasp whether industrial agglomeration shows specific spatial spillover,threshold and other special effects in the process of affecting total factor productivity.To answer the above questions,we can understand the relationship between modern service industry agglomeration and its development more clearly,reveal the influence and mechanism of modern service industry agglomeration on total factor productivity,and find for modern service industry to change from high speed development to high quality development,effectively promote national economic structure adjustment and industrial upgrading.According to the research needs,this paper first collects,collates and analyzes the relevant research results,and defines the relevant concepts involved in the research.Secondly,the present situation of modern service industry agglomeration and total factor productivity in 2006-2017 is measured and analyzed.Thirdly,using panel measurement model as a tool to carry out empirical research and analysis to clarify the relationship between industrial agglomeration and total factor productivity of modern service industry.It reveals the specific influence of modern service industry agglomeration on it under two dimensions,three subdivision categories and two levels of influence.Then,using the panel threshold model as a tool,this paper studies and analyzes the unique threshold characteristics of industrial agglomeration.Finally,using the spatial panel model as a tool,the spatial spillover effect of industrial agglomeration is analyzed and discussed,and the following main conclusions are obtained:.First,China's modern service industry is moving from high-speed development to high-quality development.Vertical development scale has become the largest industry in the national economy,the development speed is faster than the primary industry and the secondary industry,and the employment contribution rate is increasing year by year.Horizontal view has a big gap with developed countries and advanced developing countries,which is manifested in the low contribution rate to GDP,the low level of industrial structure(the proportion of producer services is low),and the low ability of employment absorption.It shows that modern service industry has great development space.China's modern service industry agglomeration has formed a trend of agglomeration in both dimensions,but has not reached the level of optimization,and the regional distribution is quite different.From the subdivision category,the producer service industry has formed agglomeration,but the degree is low,the regional distribution depends on the manufacturing industry agglomeration and the economic development degree;The industrial agglomeration of living service industry and public welfare service industry has reached the optimized level.Regional distribution depends on per capita GDP and policy tilt and support.It shows that the agglomeration space of modern service industry is large,and producer service industry agglomeration needs to be cultivated and supported.In China,the total factor productivity of the modern service industry has continued to grow,with the same growth rate as that of the macroeconomic boom.Among the three sub-categories,producer services are the fastest growing,followed by public welfare services and the slowest living services.Second,China's modern service industry agglomeration is positively correlated with total factor productivity.Overall,under the two dimensions of specialization and diversification agglomeration,the total factor productivity of modern service industry increased by 0.333% and 0.According to the three sub-categories,the effects of specialization and diversification on on total factor productivity are significantly positive,among which the level of specialization and diversification agglomeration has the greatest impact on producer services,followed by living services and the least public welfare services.From the point of view of influence mechanism,there are differences in the channels of action under different dimensions.The influence of modern service industry specialization agglomeration on total factor productivity is mainly based on technological progress and technological efficiency.The influence effect from high to low is technological progress,technological efficiency and scale efficiency.The characteristics of diversified agglomeration and development in modern service industry will affect total factor productivity on the basis of technological progress,and will not significantly affect technological efficiency.While affirming the positive effect of industrial agglomeration strategy on total factor productivity growth,this result also points out that industrial agglomeration policy should consider different dimensions,different industrial categories and different function canals.Third,there is a threshold effect on the impact of modern service industry agglomeration on total factor productivity in China,i.e.,there is an "optimal size" of modern service industry agglomeration on total factor productivity.In both dimensions,there is a double threshold effect on the impact of modern service industry agglomeration on its total factor productivity,where the "optimal size" of industry specialization agglomeration on its total factor productivity is LQ < 6.4852 because the impact changes from positive to negative when the threshold is crossed;The "optimal size" of the impact of industrial diversification on its total factor productivity is DIV < 0.6797,when crossing this threshold,although its impact is still chosen to be positive,the impact coefficient gradually decreases.In terms of the three subcategories,there is a single threshold for the impact of specialization and diversification of productive service industries on their total factor productivity,and the "optimal size" of specialization is LQ > 0.8372,while the "optimal size" of diversification is DIV <1.1390.The former implies that the impact of modern service industry agglomeration on total factor productivity is significant and positive only when modern service industry agglomeration reaches a certain level of specialization,while the latter means that the impact is not significant after the level of industrial diversification agglomeration crosses the threshold value.The research results show that it is necessary to adjust and optimize the formulation and implementation of industrial agglomeration policy.Fourth,there is a spatial spillover effect of modern service industry agglomeration on total factor productivity in China.In general,the spatial spillover effect of modern service industry specialization agglomeration on its total factor productivity presents a significant positive spatial direct effect and a non-significant spatial indirect effect,i.e.,increasing the level of industry specialization agglomeration has a significant effect on improving total factor productivity in the province,but not on neighbouring provinces;the spatial spillover effect of modern service industry diversification agglomeration on its total factor productivity presents the spatial direct and indirect effects are both significantly positive,i.e.,increasing the level of diversified concentration of modern service industries will improve the total factor productivity of modern service industries not only in the province but also in the neighbouring provinces.From the three sub-categories,the spatial direct effect of industrial agglomeration specialization level on the total factor productivity of production in the service industry,living service industry and public welfare service industry are significantly positive,and the spatial indirect effect on the production service industry and living service industry is only significantly positive,i.e.,increasing the specialization agglomeration level of production service industry can improve the total factor productivity of modern service industry in the province in all three sub-categories.The spatial spillover effect of industrial diversification level varies greatly among the three sub-categories of the modern service industry,with significant positive total effect on the productive service industry,significant positive direct and indirect effects on living service industry,and significant positive direct and total effects on the public welfare service industry.The direct and indirect effects on public welfare services are significantly positive,i.e.,increasing the level of diversified clustering of modern service industries can improve the regional total factor productivity of production service industries,the total factor productivity of living service industries in the province and neighbouring provinces,and the provincial and regional total factor productivity of public welfare service industries.Fifth,the economic and policy implications of the above findings are that appropriate policy and market instruments can accelerate or strengthen the impact of modern service industry agglomeration on total factor productivity,but both policy and market instruments need to consider regional differences in the development of modern service industry and its impact on total factor productivity,differences in development stages and differences in the channels of action,and be scientifically designed and adjusted at the right time to enhance the policy and the efficiency of policy and market regulation should be improved. |
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