A Study On Threshold Effect Of Excessive Agglomeration And The Loss Ofelement Allocation Efficiency

Production factor spatial agglomeration is a typical economic phenomenon in the course of modern economy growth. Industrial clustering can promote economic development through economies of scale. However, when agglomeration exceeds a certain limit, it will lead to a lower economic efficiency. Therefore, how to realize the industrial gradient shift and the optimize configuration of production factor will be a key to the development of agglomeration economy.Based on the panel data of 28 manufacturing industries in China, the current trend of Chinese industrial agglomeration with the aid of "comprehensive scale index" which could be calculated by a series of input and output indicators were analyzed and the threshold regressive model to interpret the nonlinear relationship between the "comprehensive scale index" and profit also was discussed in this paper.The main research result was found that there may not be a uniformly positive influence relationship between the "comprehensive scale index" and profit in all manufacturing industries, some manufacturing industries'agglomeration becomes much more excessive, there were input surplus and output deficit on combination of factors when the progress of spatial agglomeration of manufacturing industries. There were one or more thresholds between agglomeration and profit in different manufacturing industries. As a result, the manufacturing industries can be divided into excessive agglomeration industry, appropriate agglomeration industry and promising agglomeration industry. There was no obvious threshold effect in the equipment manufacturing, electronic communication equipment manufacturing, these industry which have a moderate agglomeration such as the printing industry, cultural and educational products industry, have been proved to exist threshold. What's more, on the basis of the theory of one threshold model, there were more than one threshold in the field of textiles and other manufacturing industries which have excessive agglomeration.By means of DEA, the excessive agglomeration areas were found out. The result of the analysis of slack variable can do some help to discriminate and tabling the agglomeration suitability of manufacturing industries and rationalization of industry in those excessive agglomeration industry areas.