The Effects Of Carbon Tax Policy On Energy And Environment Systems Under Uncertainty

As more and more people focus on the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon tax policy as a simple and easy implement policy is paid much attention. Most studies in domestic and overseas focused on the economic analysis of carbon tax; few studies analyzed the impact of carbon tax on energy and environmental systems. In addition, in energy and environment management systems, there are many factors that should be considered by decision-makers, such as energy supply amount, energy supply capacity, pollutants treating efficiency, etc. Moreover, many system parameters (e.g., energy conversion cost, processing cost and facility capacity), impact factors (e.g., energy price, labor fee, and management expenses) and their interactions are associated with uncertainties. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variations of many system components may further multiply these uncertainties. These complex uncertainties could lead to a lot of difficulties in the long-term planning of energy and environment manament activities. Therefore, in this paper, considering carbon tax policy, an interval fuzzy mixed integer programming model for energy and environmental systems (IFI-EEM) was built, and two cases were used to quantitatively analyse the system changes under different carbon tax rates and emission effectiveness of carbon tax policy, including adjustment of energy structure, GHG emission amount and the energy and environmental system cost. The results show that the implementation of carbon tax policy can reduce GHG and pollutant emissions to a certain extent, and emission reduction intensity would significantly increase with time going on; however with the carbon tax rate increasing, the system cost of energy and environmental systems shows a trend of increasing. In this study, by constructing an interval fuzzy mixed integer programming model for energy and environmental systems, the GHG and pollutant emissions under different carbon tax scenarios is quantitatively described,thus facilitating the study and implementation of carbon tax policy.