Research On China’s Co₂Emission Based On STIRPAT Model

Global warming has become a indisputable fact. It has been proved by researchesthat the emission of greenhouse gases is the major reason for global warming. AndCO₂is one of the major greenhouse gases. Therefore, researching into the impactfactors for CO₂has become the hottest issue among scholars domestic and abroad.With the deepening of Reform and Open-up, China’s economic has been enlarged witha explosive rate. With the dramatic development in population and economic, theemission of CO₂also increased enormously. At present, China has become the countrywho has the largest emission of CO₂. So it is extremely important to analyze thedriving factors for CO₂emission in China.First, reference approach recommended by IPCC is adopted to estimate China’sCO₂emissions from1995to2009, and then this paper emphasizes on the drivingfactors of CO₂emissions based on the STIRPAT approach. According to the basicSTIRPAT model, the factor---population is decomposed to scale factor and structurefactor, importing two indexes---the ratio of population among labor age and the scaleof a family as population structure factor. Furthermore, import populationurbanization as a form of population structure and a embodiment of urbanization.Take per capita GDP as the indicator of affluence and take energy intensity, the ratioof second and third industry as the indicator of technology. The results show that percapita GDP, energy intensity are the most major driving forces for China’s CO₂emissions, and there is not any Kuznets curve for per capita GDP. Populationurbanization has a negative impact on CO₂emission, which may result from moremodern methods and clean technologies that adopted in energy using as the process ofurbanization and modernization. This kind of change will upgrade the effectiveness ofenergy using. And the negative impacts is more obvious than the positive effects thatare produced by city expansion and the increase of residents’ energy consumptioncapacity. The ratio of population among labor age and the scale of a family togetherwith the ratio of the second industry have no significant impacts. However, theincrease of third industry will decrease the emission of CO₂.Due to the differences ofnatural talent, economic development among east, center, west, this paper analyzesand compares the different impacts from population, affluence and technology. Percapita GDP and energy intensity still are the major factors that affect the emission of CO₂for all these three districts. Population only affects the CO₂emissions of west.Population urbanization, same as result for the national data, has negative impacts onCO₂emission for the east and the center. And only in east, the ratio of third industryhas significant impact on CO₂emission.