The Prediction On Carbon Emissions And The Path Analysis On The Reduction Of Carbon Emissions Of Shandong Province

With the rapid development of economic globalization and the improvement ofpeople’s living standards, energy consumption in various countries is being more andmore, so, carbon emissions have been paid more and more attention. As the world’slargest developing country, China is not only the world’s second largest energyconsumer, but also the world’s second largest carbon emitters, whose demand forenergy is growing. With the gradual strengthening of the impact of global warming,various organizations and countries are paying their attention on this issue ofgreenhouse gas emissions. Also, carbon dioxide is the maximum amount gas and themain gas of greenhouse gas, it is getting more concern. At present, the problem ofcarbon emissions has become the focus of attention of domestic and foreign academiaand Governments.As China’s major economic province, Shandong Province has not only the moreenergy consumption but also more carbon emissions in the provinces. From thecurrent domestic and foreign scholars, as a carbon Province of China, ShandongProvince has a huge energy saving potential. These scholars mainly are obtained by acomparative study with other provinces, not studying Shandong Province carbonalonely. This study is to establish a suitable Shandong Province carbon system, whichcombines the accounting of carbon emissions, the factor decomposition analysis, themodel, the peak forecast scenarios the potential of research and path analysis onemission reduction in Shandong Province. And the system has the ability to conduct acomprehensive, specific and scientific research to Shandong Province’s carbonemissions.There are more research methods applied in the article, most of which are thequantitative analysis method. Use a bottom-up accounting method of the IPCC’scarbon emissions in the accounting of carbon emissions in Shandong Province; useLMDI factor decomposition method in the decomposition analysis of the carbonemission factor of Shandong Province; use a correction of the IPAT model inShandong Province carbon emissions model econometrics; use scenario analysis and forecasting methods in Shandong Province carbon emissions peak forecast; use of theLaspeyres structural decomposition analysis and cluster analysis in the ShandongProvince reduction pathways analysis. In addition, based on the1995-2010ShandongProvince historical data related to carbon emissions, the article has calculated a largenumber of results and used chart analysis and a comparative study of these results, gotthe conclusion.Its main results and conclusions are as follows:(1)1995-2010, Shandong Province has so large energy intensity and a largegrowing amount of carbon emissions year by year. Factors in population growth, percapita GDP growth, the growth of oil consumption have resulted in the growth ofShandong Province carbon emissions, and energy intensity reducing has a strongdownward pulling effect on the reduce of carbon emissions in Shandong Province;(2) In accordance with the present situation, if the government does not takeenergy saving measures, Shandong Province carbon emissions will reach its peak in2040, and the peak amount is334,247,800tons of carbon. In the take energy-savingscenarios, Shandong Province carbon emissions will get the peak in2024, and thepeak amount is277,896,900tons of carbon. In the take the strong energy-savingscenarios, carbon emissions in Shandong Province will get the peak in2020, and thepeak amount is262,745,700tons of carbon;(3) Energy saving and emission reduction in Shandong Province carbonemissions must make not affect on the economic development and regional stability.So, taking major measures of energy intensity and energy structure adjusted is helpfor the energy saving and emission reduction, for example, increasing year on yearreduction in energy intensity, improving energy efficiency and increasing theproportion of new energy in the energy structure;(4) Under the analysis on industrial decomposition, the effect of the energyintensity of Shandong Province is divided into the strength of effects and structureeffects. Among, the structure effect of the energy intensity of Shandong Province isthe main effect. So, adjustment on the Shandong Province of industrial structure is amajor way to reduce the energy intensity of Shandong Province.In this paper, the carbon emissions of Shandong Province and its reductionpathways have been studied. In this paper, the accounting of carbon emissions factordecomposition analysis, model fitting, scenario analysis and forecast, the peak ofresearch and emission reduction fused into the overall system of carbon emission studies in Shandong Province. Based on this system, studying from historical data,other provinces and all cities in Shandong Province, the paper added the reductionpathways in the analysis of emission reduction path. From the last effect, this studyhas achieved its purpose of the study and made a certain amount of innovation.