The Analysis Of Influencing Factors And Carbon Reduction Potential Of Urban Residents’ Living Carbon Emissions In China

With the rapid development of China’s economy and the acceleration of modernization,the problem of carbon emissions has become increasingly serious,and low-carbon emission reduction has become a hot issue of current social concern.In recent years,the rapid improvement of China’s urbanization level has brought great pressure to the realization of China’s "dual carbon" goal.As the main participant of urban carbon emissions,it is of great significance to focus on the carbon emissions of urban residents,explore the current situation of carbon emissions and its influencing factors in China,and promote the carbon reduction of urban residents’ lives to accelerate the realization of China’s low-carbon goals.This thesis selects the carbon emissions of urban residents as the research object,uses the carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the total carbon emissions of gas,electricity and heating in China,analyzes the carbon emission characteristics of urban residents from 2009 to 2019,and uses cluster analysis to divide 288 cities at the prefecture level and above into five categories by combining the carbon emissions,population and economic characteristics of urban residents.In addition,the LMDI factor decomposition method was used to explore the impact of six factors,including residential energy structure,residential energy intensity and residents’ consumption tendency,on the carbon emissions of residents in the whole country and different clustered cities.On this basis,the BP neural network model is used to predict the carbon emissions of residents in various typical cities under different scenarios,analyze and compare the carbon reduction potential of residents in different cities,and provide relevant basis and suggestions for the formulation and implementation of residential carbon reduction policies.The results show that:(1)From 2009 to 2019,the total carbon emissions of urban residents in China and the per capita carbon emissions showed an increasing trend year by year.Among them,heating carbon emissions account for the highest proportion,followed by electricity carbon emissions,and gas carbon emissions account for the smallest proportion.In addition,China’s residents’ domestic carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in densely populated and economically developed cities,while cities with higher per capita living carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the northeast,northwest and a few coastal developed areas.Most of the carbon emissions of residential electricity and gas consumption are large and medium-sized cities with developed economies,while the carbon emissions of residential heating are mainly concentrated in northern cities.(2)Through the decomposition of the influencing factors of urban residents’ living carbon emissions,the impact of urbanization level,per capita disposable income,residents’ energy structure and total population size on the carbon emissions of urban residents in the country are all positive,and the influence effect of residents’ energy intensity and residents’ consumption tendency is negative,among which the promotion effect of residents’ disposable income is the strongest,and the inhibition effect of residents’ energy intensity is the strongest.The effects of disposable income,urbanization level,total population size and consumption tendency of various types of urban residents on residents’ carbon emissions are similar to those in China,while the energy structure and energy intensity of residents show different effects in different urban types.(3)Through the prediction of the carbon emissions of typical urban residents under different scenarios,the future change trend of residents’ living carbon emissions in different types of cities in China is different,and the carbon reduction potential of residents is also quite different.The relative carbon reduction potential of residents in the second and third types of cities is significantly higher than that of other cities,while the relative carbon reduction potential of residents in the fourth type of cities gradually catches up with other cities after fluctuations,while the relative carbon reduction potential of residents in the first and fifth types of cities is at a low level.