The Influence Factors Of Low-carbon-city

Under the background of global warming, most countries are actively committed tothe development of low-carbon economy. According to the estimation of InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA), city will consume3/4of the total energy around the world in2030. How to develop low-carbon cities is becoming a new research hotspot. In the12thFive-Year Plan period, China is facing a huge pressure on energy saving and emissionreduction. To our country, studying carbon emissions has a more realistic significance.In theory, this paper analyzes the possible influencing factors of city carbonemissions. First, economic-growth and city-carbon-emissions is inverted "U" typedistribution. Environmental-Kuznets-Curve and theory of decoupling may explain thisphenomenon. Industrial department, as the largest carbon department has muchproblems at present which make the industrial-structure one of influencing factors tocity carbon emissions. Construction and transport sector is second only to the industrialsector in carbon department. Spatial structure has impacts on city’s carbon emissionsthrough the reflection of layout of construction and traffic.In empirical study, this paper introduces three kinds of common carbon emissionestimating model. They are, respectively, simple carbon-emissions model, the modelbased on the method of IPCC estimation and Kaya carbon-emissions decompositionmodel, then, this paper compares and analyzes their applicability and shortcomings,points out that the IPCC method presents the results of more precise, which is generallylower than the results based on the Kaya decomposition model with the difference ofindustrial structure and technical level.On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper uses four factors, which are thedegree of spatial agglomeration、residents living level、industry structure and the degreeof traffic convenience，as explanatory variables to carry out fixed model of regressionestimate, using the panel data of35cities (provincial level city) in our country from theyear2003to2010with the carbon emissions data based on the IPCC method. From theempirical analysis, we can draw some conclusions as follows:Degree of spatial agglomeration and carbon emissions per capita has a "U" typedistribution. Proper population increasing can make full use of the city’s presentbuilding energy and transportation infrastructure, while when the population density is too high, traffic jams and other problems will increase the carbon emissions. Thus,population density should nor too high or too low.Proportion of the second industry and carbon emissions per capita has an inverted"U" relation. The key to reduce carbon emissions is developing advanced manufacturingwith the character of industry technology intensive and capital intensive, getting rid ofold type industrialization road. The upgrade of industry to a certain extent promoteslow-carbon-city development.GDP per capita and carbon per capita emissions have an inverted "U" typedistribution, which accords with the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The eastern citiesreaches "inflection point " prior to the middle and western cities, for the level of GDPper capita is generally higher than the level of middle and western cities.On one hand,we should continue to stimulate economic development, promoting the " inflectionpoint " to come as soon as possible, on the other hand, we should promote low carbonlifestyle.The degree of traffic convenience and carbon emissions per capita have an inverted"U" type distribution, and this relationship is stronger in middle and western cities thanthat in eastern city. Compared to eastern cities, the traffic infrastructure in middle andwestern cities is less complete and the quantity of private vehicle is less, so theimprovement of transportation convenient to some extend taps the potential private carconsumption and increases the carbon emissions. Therefore, middle and western citiesshould first complete the construction of transport infrastructure and ensure publictransport travel scale before they attempt to reduce carbon emissions in transportationdepartment.According to the empirical results, the low-carbon-city development can be carriedon from the spatial, social, industrial, technical path. For the spatial paths, attentionshould be paid to the city forming a delegation type layout and mixed land use system;For the social path, we should depend on the strengthening of environmental controland low carbon lifestyle; For the industrial path, we should pay attention to industrialstructure and product structure adjustment; For the technical path, green constructiontechniques and vehicles should be promoted.