The Analysis Of The Influence Factors And Forecast Of Carbon Emission In Shandong Province

For a long time,the oil,coal and fossil-based energy as our main source of energy, but with the economic development of this situation have become increasingly apparent drawbacks, including environmental problems due to fossil fuel use caused by emissions of greenhouse gases. According to relevant statistics in 2005 China's total energy consumption of fossil 299,855,200 tons, in 2013 the total amount of fossil energy consumption reached 488,458,700 tons, the total amount of carbon dioxide as a result of China's primary energy use and emissions over Europe and other developed countries, the world's largest carbon dioxide emissions. With the further development of our economy and the new energy industry struggling, our dependence on fossil fuels is still strong, which resulted in China's future is still facing enormous pressure of carbon emissions, which is contrary to the world's energy saving green development path how to resolve this contradiction reasonable to achieve economic and environmental win-win situation is an important issue facing our country next stage. In terms of energy saving and emission reduction, China has taken many positive steps, Shandong Province, as China's economic province to respond positively to the call to develop energy conservation development plan and a series of administrative measures to try to create good, green, Shandong Province, the economic development environment. The main purpose of this study was to Shandong Province by specific driving factors for carbon emissions reduction measures in Shandong Province to develop and provide the basis of Shandong Province in recent years by carbon emissions trend analysis and forecasting to provide data to support their.This paper studies the existing carbon emissions based on the theory, the first use of quantitative and qualitative analysis method of combining the main carbon emissions impact factors were analyzed in Shandong Province, Shandong Province, including the impact of population growth on carbon emissions, economic growth and relations carbon emissions, the impact energy structure on carbon emissions, the impact of industrialization and urbanization on carbon emissions. Secondly, building factors decomposition model LMDI model, the main factors in Shandong Province carbon emissions further broken down into demographic factors, the per capita GDP of factors, energy intensity factor and energy structural factors, namely the proportion of coal, oil percentage, the analysis results show various factors on carbon emissions is the largest per capita contribution to GDP and energy structure. Shandong Province, complex carbon emissions law, driven by many factors and the factors nonlinear, small sample, gray system characteristics, based on this paper, using a combination of these characteristics prediction method based on rough set carbon emissions in Shandong Province in the research process Short-term forecasting, and carbon emissions in Shandong Province for trend analysis based on historical carbon emissions. This article is intended for carbon emissions, Shandong Province, to establish a complete set of estimates of carbon emissions, carbon emission factor analysis and trend forecasting theoretical system.