Research On Network Reliability Of Urban Hazardous Material Logistics-distribution And Transportation System

This thesis combines the theory of reliability of city network, analyzes the special dangers during the course of hazardous material Logistics-distribution and Transportation, and gives the reliability of city road network mode, in order to provide the related corporations policy-making and management basis.This thesis summarizes the basic theory of system reliability, on the study of results of domestic and international researches, analyze the influencing factors of hazardous material Logistics-distribution and Transportation and affective factors of accident consequences. Ascertain the correlative sites (residential area, commercial center, highway bus, major hazard like gas station, ordinary sites etc.) and the natural environment (water resource such as river and lake, tourist area, natural reserves) as the main remedial factors of accident consequence. On the basis of study on hazardous material Logistics-distribution and Transportation accident consequence types and Consequence analog computation model,determines the unit which the affecting factors belong to. It analyzes and establishes the indicated hierarchy of factors of network accident consequence,the various indicators’ weights are made by the Analytic Hierarchy Process.Then it establishes the reliability model.When establishing the mode of reliability, fristly,the author simplifies the road network, analyzes the reliability of intersection (with traffic signal and without traffic signal), road section and Origin-Destination. When calculating the reliability of Origin-Destination, based on the theories of connection matrix and principle of disjoining sum of products,the minimum route sets and the disjoining of the minimum route sets’ caculation, the author designs and compiles the computer programs with circumstance of Visual Foxpro6.0and VC++6.0. Afterwards, considering the influences of the enlarged and shrunken risk factors like inherent features of road and the factors of the accident consequence, it solves the mode. Finally, the author gives the relative instrument of Logistics-distribution and Transportation of LPG,and carries on analyzing the results to validate and evalute the model,the results show the model is scientific and reasonable.