Evaluation On The Ecological Economic System Basea On Emergy-Ecological Footprint Theory

This article selects Jilin province as an example, based on emergy and the traditionalecological footprint method, construct emergy-ecological footprint analysis model,through the calculation of Jilin province2000-2009ecological carrying capacity andecological footprint, analysis the time sequence dynamic change rule and the cause offormation, and Jilin province and to establish ecological economic system evaluationsystem, choose the per capita ecological deficit/surplus, ecological pressure index,diversity index, index of ecological footprint, the ecological security level at the presentstage were analyzed and defined. In order to achieve sustainable development goals, withthe aid of MATLAB platform, the Grey forecasting model (GM),2010-2020in Jilinprovince economic and social development trend, and Jilin province in order to reveal theecological economic system future status and changing trend, and social economicdevelopment in Jilin province and the ecological system of the interaction and the possibleproblems, puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. The results of this study are:1. By using emergy-the ecological footprint model, set up2000-2009per capitaecological carrying capacity index, and the per capita ecological footprint index and pointsto kind of ecological footprint analysis index, the per capita ecological carrying capacityin Jilin province has been keeping a certain amplitude fluctuation, and the per capitaecological footprint in the constant increase, and the increase has been increasing year byyear. The per capita ecological footprint in Jilin province is the greatest impact ofcultivated land, forest land and fossil energy, followed by the construction land and grassland, water per capita ecological footprint for Jilin province the influence degree ofthe small.2. Through the calculation of ecological security index, namely ecological deficit percapita, ecological pressure index and ecological footprint diversity index, to2000-2009Jilin province ecological security evaluation. Jilin province since2003ecological deficitper capita growth is accelerated, before2003per capita ecological deficit to maintainsteady, and2009is nearly10years of maximum, and ecological pressure index werebigger, and increase amplitude greatly increased year by year, the ecological footprintdiversity index generally present downward trend, the ecological footprint diversity reducespeed. Ecological security status from2001in mild unsafe has reached the moderateunsafe condition, even in2009reached the extremely unsafe condition.3. Based on the MATLAB platform by using grey prediction model of Jilin province2010-2020years of ecological security status to carry on the forecast, separately predictthe per capita ecological carrying capacity, the per capita ecological footprint, regionalecological carrying capacity and regional ecological footprint index, etc. The resultsshowed that the ecological carrying capacity in the next10years have small amplitudereduced trend, the per capita ecological footprint increased obviously, and increase quickly,from18.6454in2010hm2/cap in2020to30.1415hm2/cap, and the per capitaecological carrying capacity of the rate of change is not the per capita ecological footprintchange fast.4. For the next ten years of Jilin province ecological security analysis and prediction.The results show that the Jilin province will continue to maintain the ecological deficit percapita growth greatly, this growing trend has been will continue to2020years and thespeed of growth will be more and more big, And the ecological pressure index that theecological footprint strength also presents the increased significantly and is increasing,and will continue to the big growth trend. Jilin province can be expected if keep thepresent this kind of ecological utilization, then Jilin province in the next decade willcontinue to maintain the ecological pressure high strength characteristic, ecologicalcarrying capacity of supporting capacity will be more and more low. Ecological footprint diversity index although in2010-2020will be improved, but also is only increasing from1.5009to1.5698, annual average increase only0.0062. Ecological security is expectedfrom2001years of mild not safety (level3) reduced to2020years of extremely unsafe(level6).5. Keep the ecological security of Jilin province should obtain from the followingseveral aspects: control the population; Transformation of the mode of economicdevelopment, and strive to build a resource-conserving environment-friendly productionand consumption mechanism; Optimization of land use structure, improve the landproduction level and productivity, improve the land utilization, Improve the ecologicalcarrying capacity, improve the ecological environment of self recovery ability; Strengthenthe management mechanism, establishing ecological environment dynamic monitoring.